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1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />unreliable because there was only a single recapture event. However, the more reliable 1993, <br />1998 and 1999 estimates averaged only 163 animals and provided persuasive evidence of a <br />downward trend in abundance. Those estimates were more convincing because of the higher <br />number offish captured and recaptured and resultant relatively small values for coefficients of <br />variation (CV) and confidence intervals. <br />Regression analyses of abundance estimates (ln) as a function of time that were available <br />between 1990 to 1999, conducted both with and without sparse data years 1994 and 1996, <br />detected significant declines in abundance from about 500 animals in 1990 to about 100 animals <br />in 1998 and 1999. Data from 1990 to 1992 were included in each of the early and later analyses <br />because that was when PIT tags replaced Carlin tags. This was important because tag type may <br />play a role in tag retention, number of recaptures observed, and subsequent abundance estimates. <br />It also seemed reasonable to include that data in each analysis, because that was the time during <br />which population status may have been changing. Regression analysis including years 1985 to <br />1999 also suggested a significant decline in population abundance. <br />Survival estimates.-Survival estimates were generated with the recaptures only model in <br />program MARK for time periods 1980 to 1992 and 1990 to 1999. Model goodness-of--fit to the <br />data was assessed with program RELEASE in MARK and was deemed adequate (a non- <br />significant chi-square test, P = 0.93). Model selection by AIC suggested the overwhelming <br />model choice for each time period was constant ~ with time-varying p. Apparent survival, ~, <br />was 0.728 (SE = 0.0287) for the time period 1980 to 1992, and was 0.762 (SE = 0.0475) for 1990 <br />to 1999. The larger SE for ~ from 1990 to 1999 reflected the fewer years of sampling and the <br />lower number of individuals recaptured. <br />15 <br /> <br />