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influence the direction of generator capacity along with a new institutional influence, electric deregulation. Based upon examination of resource constraints, market factors ' and institutional factors related to coal mining and energy generation in the Yampa Valley, we project the energy sector to change by year 2045 in the following ways: 1 • Electric generation capacity in the Yampa Valley will increase with the addition of two integrated gasification, combined cycle generating units with a combined capacity of 800 megawatts. Existing generating units will be operated at higher utilization rates, averaging 90 percent of capacity. Electric generation will employ about 750 people in 2045. • Coal production will increase to about 36 million tons per year, including exports of about 25 million tons to other markets. Coal mining employment will increase to a lesser degree, reflecting a 50 percent ' increase in productivity. Year 2045 mining employment will be about 1,200 workers. Other economic base activities. Two other industries complete the economic base of the Yampa Valley: manufacturing and construction. BBC incorporated the following projections for these industries in the 2045 projections: ' Manufacturing job growth of three percent to four percent per year in the Yampa Valley is reasonably foreseeable. By year 2045, the Yampa Valley will add between 1,200 and 2,100 new manufacturing jobs. ' obs accounted for b construction will • B 2045, the share of Routt Coun Y tY l Y diminish to between ten and eleven percent of all jobs in the county, while ' Moffat County construction employment will increase to seven to eight percent of all jobs in that county. Overall, the construction sector will represent between nine and ten percent of all Yampa Valley jobs. Year 2045 construction employment will include between 2,400 and 3,000 more jobs than in 1995. .Projected 2045 Total Employment and Population The projected long-term changes in the Yampa Valley economic base can be expected to trigger other changes throughout the local economy. Exhibit S-2 presents projected changes in employment by sector for the Yampa Valley. Note that the mining sector includes jobs in gravel mining as well as coal mining, and the agriculture section includes jobs such as landscaping that are not directly tied to commercial farming and ranching. ' Based upon analyses of commuting patterns, multiple job holding and labor force participation rates, the 2045 Yampa Valley employment projections were used to derive the projected population. The low end of the projected Yampa Valley employment range in 2045 (approximately 49,300 jobs) is consistent with a combined BBC Research & Consulting ES - 5