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1 1 1 t needs. An independent peer reviewer, Dr. John Loomis of Colorado State University, provided helpful comments and suggestions which also led to refinements in the projections. The water demand projections set forth in this study were derived from two principal components. The first component was the development of detailed economic and demographic projections for the Yampa River Valley which was defined in this study to include all of Moffat County and Routt County. The second component was development of water demand factors corresponding to elements of the economic and demographic projections -for instance, residential gallons per capita, and gallons per kilowatt hour of electricity generated in the Yampa Valley. To develop the economic and demographic projections, BBC examined the prospects for each component of the Yampa Valley economic base in terms of resource constraints, market factors and institutional factors influencing future development. Projections of employment in direct, basic economic activities such as agriculture, coal mining, electricity generation and tourism were then incorporated into BBC's economic and demographic model of the Yampa Basin to project changes in employment, population and economic activity over the 50-year horizon. BBC then developed estimates of future water diversions and consumptive use corresponding to the projections of economic and demographic growth in the Yampa Basin. The water demand projections were comprised of four elements: estimated water demands for major water use activities, such as agriculture, electric generation and mining; water demand projections for other economic activities, including commercial and retail businesses, manufacturing, snowmaking and golf courses; water demand for residential, or domestic consumption; and water demands for other purposes including export out of the Yampa Basin and reservoir evaporation. ]n addition to the base case water demand forecasts corresponding to the economic and demographic projections, BBC also conducted several sensitivity analyses. These analyses examine the effects of higher and lower growth assumptions in key sectors, alternative views of future irrigated agriculture prospects and differing water use coefficients corresponding to high demand conditions, such as unusually dry years. Historical Perspective A long-term historical perspective helps inform long-term forecasting efforts. The Yampa Valley has, since the early 1900's, been characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by periods of stagnation or even decline. Over the past 90 years, the Yampa Valley population grew at an average annual 1.8 percent rate, although the 1965 ' to 1995 period experienced a more rapid 2.6 percent growth rate. The Valley's economic fluctuations are illustrated by unemployment which reached almost 12 percent in the early 1980s and was less than five percent in the mid-1990s. BBC Research & Consulting ES - 3