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-14- <br />With few exceptions the individual GCES reports <br />refer to the effects of the flooding, and so it is <br />clear that some analyses were conducted as the <br />opportunity forced itself on the project. The <br />flooding was seen by most researchers, however, as <br />a major interference with the stated tasks. Bureau <br />of Reclamation administrators considered the flood <br />to be a potential reason for discontinuing the <br />studies. <br />The lesson from this experience is that <br />uncertainty characterizes ecosystem processes and <br />the unexpected should be considered in planning. <br />What are the most likely major events that would <br />influence the conduct of the research? What should <br />be done if such an event occurred? <br />Future work by the Department of the Interior <br />should <br />• assume complexity, interactions, and indirect <br />effects in future studies <br />• treat operations as manipulative experiments <br />and, thus, monitoring as experimental data <br />collection <br />Need for Peer Review in Project Selection <br />The individual projects in the GCES were <br />identified at the beginning of the study in the <br />absence of a careful design, specific goals, and <br />well-stated objectives. Project funds were <br />committed early, and planning was added as the <br />project grew. A conceptual scheme to guide the <br />selection of critical research questions and clear <br />identification of the required research skills was <br />needed. <br />The lead agency for the GCES--the Bureau of <br />Reclamation--apparently did not solicit the talent <br />to conduct the needed research through a <br />peer-reviewed request for proposals. The committee <br />believes that such talent exists outside the <br />agencies directly involved in the project, e.g., <br />U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, <br />