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116 Status of Razorback Sucker <br />4 years <br />1 <br />8 <br />6 <br />4 <br />2 <br />s ~ <br />fA 7 <br />LL 1 <br />a,- <br />O <br />L <br />.Q <br />Z <br />0 <br />• ~ r = 0.01 <br />4 • <br />2 <br />0 •• <br />g <br />6 r o.oo <br />4 <br />2 •• <br />0 • <br />14 <br />12 •• <br />10 <br />8 r2 0.03 • <br />s <br />4 - <br />2 • <br />0 <br />140 280 425 6 <br />5 years <br />• r 0.01 <br />• r = 0.05 <br />, r 0.10 <br />140 28 425 6 <br />Discharge (m3/sec) <br />years following higher flow years, suggests some level of <br />recruitment. The absence of significant decline in esti- <br />mated population size through time and the estimated <br />71 % annual survival rate (which represents survival mul- <br />tiplied by tag retention) give greater support to the con- <br />tention that the middle Green River population of razor- <br />back sucker is dynamic rather than static. Even if tag-loss <br />was 20%, survival of adults would be 89%, which would <br />result in a dramatic reduction in population size through <br />time without recruitment. <br />Lanigan and Tyus (1989) estimated that approximately <br />1000 razorback sucker adults existed in the Green River <br />between the mouth of the Yampa and Duchesne rivers. <br />This point estimate using the model CAI'T'LJRE (White et <br />al. 1982) was based on 7 years of data and made the as- <br />sumptions of negligible recruitment, mortality or tag <br />loss. Our estimated 71 % annual survival estimate and the <br />absence of a significant population decline appeared to <br />indicate that some recruitment was occurring. Because <br />Modde et al. <br />6 years <br />E <br />E <br />~o <br />... ~ <br />h <br />us <br />_ ~ <br />r = 0.23 ~ <br />• r 0.13 <br />• r = 0.09 <br />140 280 425 565 <br />E <br />E <br />m <br />h <br />x <br />J <br />F- <br />E <br />E <br />ao <br />n <br />so <br />v~ <br />H <br />J <br />F- <br />of the paucity of juvenile razorback suckers collected in <br />the middle Green River, we believe that many of the <br />new, unmarked individuals in the population resulted <br />from tag loss. <br />It was impossible to adjust for tag loss in our estimates <br />of recruitment. Despite this bias, however, the popula- <br />tion estimates by Lanigan and Tyus (1989) and by us are <br />of the same order of magnitude. Both estimates suggest <br />that the population size of Green River razorback sucker <br />is precariously low but has not changed significantly <br />during the last 10 years. Our inability to quantify tag loss <br />prevents an accurate determination of recruitment and <br />survival. Tyus and Lanigan (1989) directly observed only <br />a 5.6% tag foss through their 8-year study, although they <br />were not able to verify greater losses. Our estimated 29% <br />annual mortality (which includes tag loss) exceeds most <br />estimates of annual dangler-like tag loss from other fish <br />species (Rawstron 1973; Kallemyne 1989), suggesting <br />some level of recruitment. Thus, the middle Green River <br />Conservation Biology <br />Volume 10, No. 1, February 1996 <br />