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<br />a b <br /> AN, <br />z <br />¢ <br /> GO <br /> <br />a" t <br /> Col <br /> GM zZ2 <br /> ass m <br /> CIOI ZO <br /> G02 Z25 <br /> AB1 zz, <br /> ABf z,x <br /> AB5 Z25 <br /> ASS rya <br /> A92 ryo <br /> A81 Yy5 <br /> A83 YV4 <br /> A85 M <br /> LD, <br /> roz <br /> - 0.001 <br /> 0.001 <br /> <br /> C <br /> ,0 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 13 <br /> <br /> <br /> P <br /> R2 <br /> <br /> 0.001 <br />Figure 4. Coalescent genealogies that maximize the likelihood of the <br />DNA data for (u) humpback chub, (b) bonytail, and (c) razorback s <br />Garrigan et al. 2002). Branch lengths are scaled in terms of the nu <br />tions per site. The letters on the tree branches represent the names o <br />and numbers represent individuals with those sequences. The dicta <br />identical sequences represents the time, in generations, since a com <br />three remaining haplotypes are quite divergent; this suggests <br />that present genetic variation still reflects a high degree of an- <br />cestral variation. Variation in the other three species remains <br />even more intact. However, this variation will decay quickly <br />if population sizes that define recovery are small and, more <br />critically, if the population is founded or maintained by small <br />numbers of brood fish. The Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS <br />2002a, 2002b, 2002c, 2002d) proposed recovery goals of N_ = <br />700-5800 wild fish per species or river reach for big-river fishes <br />in the upper Colorado basin. Recovery goals for downlisting <br />and delisting include minimum census population sizes of <br />2100 adult humpback chub in each of 3 populations, 4400 <br />bonytail in each of 4 populations, <br />5800 razorback sucker in each of 4 <br />populations, and 700 (upper Col- <br />orado River) or 800 (San Juan River) <br />plus 2600 (Green River) Colorado <br />squawfish (USFWS 2002a, 2002b, <br />2002c, 2002d). <br />Brood stocks for razorback sucker, <br />on which future stocking toward re- <br />covery is to be based, have been de- <br />veloped from as few as 5 and up to 25 <br />paired matings using 5 males and 5 fe- <br />males (Minckley et al. 1991). Such <br />low initial stocks are utterly inade- <br />quate and cannot be supported by <br />any contemporary science. The goals <br />proposed by USFWS are lower than <br />any historical estimate of population <br />size for bonytail, the species with the <br />smallest estimated long term Ne <br />These low numbers are especially dis- <br />conc:efting for the other taxa because <br />far larger numbers, and thus far more <br />genetic variability, can be readily <br />maintained. <br />We strongly recommend circum- <br />venting the pitfalls of hatchery culture <br />(Ryman et al. 1993, Hindar 1994, <br />Dowling et al. 1996a), as this has al- <br />ready severely restricted the genetic <br />variability of hatchery stocks and their <br />progeny of bonytail (Hedrick et al. <br />2000) and razorback sucker (Dowling <br />et al. 1996a). However, we recognize <br />there are differences of opinion rela- <br />mitochondrial tive to the role of artificial propagation <br />tuber of substitu- (juvenile or adult) life stages. Re- <br />ueker (from and growth from larvae into larger <br />the haplotype, gnudless of the mating strategy ap <br />nce between plied, the only genetic variation that <br />non ancestor. can be passed to the future from a <br />hatchery setting is that of the original <br />brood fish. Despite uninformed <br />protestations to the contrary, all pos- <br />sible combinations of 5 males and 5 females still provide the <br />genetic variation of only 10 fish and are wholly inadequate for <br />the recovery of lower Colorado River native fishes. If N is re- <br />duced, either naturally or through improper management, ge- <br />netic variation is diminished and less new variation generated, <br />potentially reducing fitness because of fixation of detrimen- <br />tal alleles. Such reductions in fitness when 1q declines appear <br />to be a particularly severe problem in species with large an- <br />cestral populations and high historical genetic loads (Hedrick <br />and Kalinowski 2000). <br />A far higher target for 1\ must be set so all four endangered <br />fishes may continue to evolve in a way resembling that of the <br />226 BioSdence • March 2003 / Vol. 53 No. 3