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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 4. WATER DEMAND STUDIES The 1993 Hydrosphere study projected water demands both near-term (2015) and long-term (2040) for the Yampa River Basin. The study estimated water demands as of 1989 based on expected population growth and projections for industrial use (primarily cooling water requirements for power generation). The total long-term demand for water was estimated at 479,000 afwith consumptive use of 160,000 af. In June 1998, BBC Research and Consulting completed a subsequent study of future water demands entitled Yampa Valley Water Demand Study Final Report (BBC Research & Consulting, 1998). The purpose of the study was to update and expand upon the 1993 Hydrosphere study and examine and quantify long-term water demand for human use in the Yampa River Basin. The BBC study was to provide a more in-depth examination of economic and demographic factors that affect water demand. The study first determined the current economic and demographic make up of the valley; approximately 30,000 people live in the Yampa River Valley. The service industry (including ski resorts and related services) employs the most people (7,330). The wholesale and retail trade employs 6,170 people, and the agricultural industry employs 1,270 people. The prospects for each employment sector were analyzed to help predict future growth. Recreation visitor days are expected to more than double, indicating that service and retail industries are likely to continue to grow in the future. The remaining sectors will experience slower growth. Agriculture is projected to be stable. BBC used the current demographics and economics to predict a growth rate. The Yampa River Valley population will grow to an estimated 62,500-77,000 by 2045. The service industry will still employ the largest number of people, closely followed by retail and wholesale trade. Agriculture is predicted to employ the fewest people (less than 3 percent of the population). The current water usage by each sector was analyzed to help predict future water usage by diversion (how much water is taken from the river) and by consumption (how much is used). Approximately 465,000 af per year is diverted and 120,000 af is consumed. Agriculture diverts about 425,000 af and consumes roughly 90,000 af, with the remainder returning to the river. Approximately 20,000 af is diverted/consumed by the thermo-electric generation plants, which makes the electric industry the second largest water consumer in the Yampa Valley. BBC also analyzed if Yampa Valley industries could adopt water conservation methods to reduce water consumption. The electric powerplants in Craig and Hayden may eventually install additional generating units. The lower water using units would decrease the amount of water per unit of generation for cooling purposes. Private and municipal sectors could implement water conservation measures, but the amount of water saved would be small compared to irrigation demand. Conservation measures by agriculture (e.g., sprinkler vs. flood irrigation) would reduce both diversions and return flows, resulting in little net increase in stream flows. ...... Finally, BSC projected the water demand for the year 2045. This projection assumes demands will not be limited by future water availability. Water diversions will range between 490,000 and 620,000 af. Water consumption will range between 140,000 and 170,000 af. Agriculture will divert between 425,000 and 540,000 af and consume between 90,000 and 115,000 af. Table 1 and Table 2 give a detailed breakdown of the 2045 diversions and consumption, respectively. 13