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<br />240 <br /> <br />MICHAEL E. DOUGLAS ET AL. <br /> <br /> <br />.. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />FIG. 2. Sketch maps of parts of Arizona-Sonora, southwestern North America, showing some place and region names used in the text <br />and general relationships of Tertiary basins and/or sedimentary rock units (indicated by diagonal or horizontal hatching) to present <br />streams of the Gila River system. (A) Oligocene Epoch; (B) Miocene; and (C) Pliocene (modified from Nations et al. 1982). <br /> <br />Measurements (to 0.1 mm) followed Hubbs and Lagler <br />(1974), except when described in parentheses; length of head, <br />middorsal head (occiput to snout), snout, postorbit, upper <br />jaw, predorsal, prepe1vic, pelvic fin, dorsal fin, anal fin, pec- <br />toral fin, caudal fin (hypural plate to tip of upper lobe), and <br />caudal peduncle; distance from pectoral insertion to pelvic <br />insertion, snout tip to isthmus, chin tip to isthmus, and fleshy <br />orbit; depth of head, body, and caudal peduncle (least); and <br />width of postorbital, head, fleshy interorbital, gape, and body <br />(greatest). Measurements are from DeMarais (1986), who <br />also tabulated means, listed collection data, and provided <br />additional information on ecology and distribution. <br /> <br />Data Analysis <br /> <br />Sheared PCA (Bookstein et al. 1985, as modified by Rohlf <br />and Bookstein 1987), was used to derive size-free shape <br />scores from 10gIO-transformed morphometric data. These <br />were converted to a matrix of pairwise taxonomic distances <br />(Sneath and SokaI1973), which was tested against the various <br />evolutionary models described below. <br /> <br />Pattern Analysis <br /> <br />Mantel (1967) devised a generalized, nonparametric re- <br />gression approach to matrix comparisons, where the sum of <br />cross-products of analogous cells of two matrices are com- <br />pared against an expected value calculated on the null hy- <br />pothesis of random permutations between rows/columns of <br />the second (the computation is actually the inner product of <br />each permutation within the first matrix). Because Mantel's <br />procedure evaluates all possible permutations of rows and <br />columns of the second matrix, it employs a generalized per- <br />mutational distribution to assess statistical significance. <br />Rows and columns of test matrices were permuted 1000 times <br />for each evaluation (Jackson and Somers 1989). <br />Because the test is nonparametric, distributional abnor- <br />malities of data collected from different sources (e.g., eco- <br /> <br />logical, morphological, geographical) are circumvented. In <br />addition, potential problems with comparing categorical ver- <br />sus continuous data (here, morphology vs. hypothesis ma- <br />trices) are negated as well. Sokal (1979) brought Mantel's <br />test to the attention of systematists and suggested applications <br />in geographic variation analysis (for reviews see Douglas and <br />Endler 1982; Manly 1985; Douglas and Matthews 1992; <br />Smouse and Long 1992). <br />Pairwise Mantel tests were used to evaluate a null hy- <br />pothesis which assumes no significant covariation when fish <br />morphologies are compared against ecological conditions or <br />hydrography. As in previous work (Douglas and Endler 1982; <br />Douglas and Matthews 1992), the Bonferroni technique (Har- <br />ris 1975, pp. 96-101) was applied to assign significance level <br />and establish a probability level for making a Type I error <br />(identifying a matrix comparison as significant when it is <br />not). Under the conservative Bonferroni technique, the prob- <br />ability level for our tests would be 0.05/n, where n is the <br />number of matrix comparisons. <br />Smouse et al. (1986) modified and extended the method- <br />ology so that three matrices could be contrasted simulta- <br />neously. This allows correlations and partial correlations to <br />be generated between matrices, which are then used to cal- <br />culate coefficients of multiple determination (Smouse et al. <br />1986; Smouse and Long 1992). We used three-way Mantel <br />comparisons to extend those two-way tests in which signif- <br />icant results were indicated between the morphological ma- <br />trix and two or more "response" matrices (as in Douglas and <br />Matthews 1992). <br /> <br />CONSTRUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE MODELS <br /> <br />Three scenarios were developed to explain the distribution <br />of morphological variation among sampling sites. <br /> <br />Model I: Ecophenotypy and Ecotypy <br /> <br />An ecophenotype represents distinctive individuals of a <br />species occupying contrasting habitats. Ecophenotypes pre- <br />