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<br />356 <br /> <br />CHAPTER 15 <br /> <br />and compressed extinction as that which we now face. Predictions of the <br />percentage of today's species that will be iost by the end of this century range <br />from 15 to 50 (Shen 1987). <br />Many see a need for human intervention to slow the accelerated rate of <br />extinction, but attempts to reduce the extinction rate are unlikely to succeed <br />unless causes of extinction are understood. Humphrey (1985) listed three biolog- <br />ical circumstances that lead to extinction: natural rarity, lack of habitat, and <br />inbreeding depression (loss of genetic diversity). Persistent rarity often arises <br />from a position high on a grazing food chain or from large body size. An organism <br />that has evolved to maximize its fitness in a particular limited habitat is a <br />candidate for extinction if that habitat is threatened. Liability to extinction is <br />decreased if a species occurs in a large number of semiautonomous populations <br />over a wide geographical range. Without sufficient numbers of individuals, genetic <br />diversity in biological populations may be decreased to harmful levels. The <br />concept of minimum viable population-a level of abundance above which <br />persistence, without loss of fitness, for a given length of time is assured-has <br />recently come into vogue (Soule 1987). <br />Environmental change resulting in extinction may be physical or biological in <br />nature. Habitat disruption, a type of physical change, is the foremost cause of <br />plant and animal extinctions, and it is usually difficult or impossible to rectify. <br />Wolf (1987) stressed the significant effects offragmenting once-continuous habitat <br />into island-like refuges; animals typically die out in a manner referred to as faunal <br />collapse. Habitat destruction in tropical forests, where up to half the species on <br />earth reside (Myers 1986), is widely recognized as the greatest threat to wild <br />plants and animals. Extinction from biological causes may come about from <br />improved abilities of predators (including people) or competitors, which evolve <br />over time, or invasion by nonnative species. Humans have contributed to <br />extinction through commercial hunting, predator and pest control, and collection <br />of organisms for medical research, zoos, and sources of houseplants. Impacts of <br />alien organisms introduced by humankind may combine with effects of human <br />exploitation to devastate native species. Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1981) provided <br />excellent reviews of how species endangerment by humans occurs directly (e.g., <br />by overexploitation and predator control) or indirectly (e.g., in their words, <br />through paving over, plowing under, spewing, cutting down, transporting, and <br />recreation). <br /> <br />15.1.2 Reasons to Minimize Extinction <br /> <br />Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1981) grouped reasons to care about extinction into (1) <br />direct economic benefits to humans; (2) indirect (ecological) benefits to humans: <br />and (3) compassion, aesthetics, fascination, and ethics. Direct benefits include <br />allowing us to meet future agricultural, pharmaceutical, and industrial needs. <br />Potentially useful species may become extinct before humans discover and exploit <br />them as sources of food, fiber, shelter, recreation, medicines, lubricating oils and <br />waxes, energy, biological pest controls, or research subjects. <br />The ecological benefits of maintaining diverse natural systems are less obvious, <br />more difficult to convey to nonbiologists, and sometimes the subject of contro- <br />versy among ecologists. Myers (1979a) emphasized the role of biological diversity <br />in contributing to stability of ecosystems. Ehrenfeld (1976) described the diver- <br />