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<br />24 <br />Table 2. Coefficient of variation C % for the removal method <br />for various values of population size y, catchability p and <br />number of removals k. Relative precision of the removal method. <br /> y = 50 y = 100 Y = 200 y=400 <br />P = 0.4 k=2 42 30 21 15 <br /> k=3 19 13 9 7 <br /> k=4 10 7 5 4 <br />P = 0.6 k=2 14 10 7 5 <br /> k=3 6 4 3 2 <br /> k=4 3 2 1.5 I <br />P = 0.8 k=2 4 3 2 1.5 <br /> k=3 1.4 I 0.7 0.5 <br /> k=4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 <br /> <br />Precision <br />To illustrate how the precision, expressed as the <br />coefficient of variation, depends on p, k and y, we <br />have prepared Table 2. From this it is evident that <br />the precision is particularily dependent on k and <br />p, viz. the sampling fraction. For many salmonid <br />populations, p is often in the magnitude of 0.5 or <br />more. If3 removals are carried out in this case, the <br />precision corresponds roughly to Class 1. Note <br />the disastrous effect of the combination small <br />populations, low catchability and few removals. It <br />can also be noted that there is generally a sub- <br />stantial gain in precision from 2 to 3 removals. A <br />third removal may take little extra time to carry <br />out, at least in high density biotopes. It may there- <br />fore be worthwhile to make 3 removals in favour <br />of2. Ifp is lower than 0.5, more removals may be <br />required. <br />There is an additional reason to apply 3 rather <br />than 2 removals. For the 2-catch method, the <br />standard error estimate seems to be of doubtful <br />value for populations smaller than about 200, <br />whereas the 3-catch method may tolerate popu- <br />lations down to about 50 (Seber, 1973; Bohlin, <br />1982). <br />If the population is small, there are thus two <br />problems. The first is that the relative precision, <br />C, will be poor, and the second that both the <br />population size and its variance are hard to esti- <br />mate. This is especially true for k = 2, in which <br />case the method may fail totally. These problems, <br /> <br />however, seem easy to overcome by using an <br />approximately known p value, estimated from a <br />larger population as in examples 3 and 4. If so, the <br />precision also from very small populations may be <br />quite good, provided that the small population is <br />fished at least 3 times. The problem of estimating <br />this precision remains. As will be shown be- <br />low, however, this may not be a major draw- <br />back. On the assumption that the catchability is <br />reasonably constant, we recommend the use of an <br />approximately known catchability if the popula- <br />tion is smaller than about 50, or if the first catch <br />yields less than about 25, or if fewer than 3 remo- <br />vals are carried out. <br /> <br />Accuracy <br />The accuracy of the removal method depends on <br />how well the basic assumptions are valid for real <br />populations. One of the major sources of in- <br />accuracy is probably a catchability which varies <br />among individuals in the population. As the <br />catches in this case are dominated by individuals <br />with a catch ability above the population average, <br />the result is an overestimation of p and hence an <br />underestimation of population size. To illustrate <br />this, consider a population in which one half is <br />living in a biotope where the individuals are <br />impossible to catch, and that the other half is <br />living in a biotope in which the catch ability is 0.5. <br />The removal method in this extreme population <br />will yield an estimated catchability of about 0.5, <br />although the real catchability was 0.25 in the first <br />catch, 0.125 in the second etc. Further, the esti- <br />mate of the population size would be half of the <br />real number. The effect of a catchability forming <br />a continuous distribution rather than discrete <br />values as in the example above is similar, but the <br />degree of underestimation of population size is <br />heavily dependent on the shape of this distribu- <br />tion. The most serious bias is expected when a <br />large fraction of the population has a catchability <br />considerably lower than the population average. <br />It has also been shown (Seber and Whale, 1970; <br />Bohlin and Sundstrom, 1977), that the under- <br />estimation caused by an individually varying <br />catchability increases with decreasing mean <br />catchability. When evaluating estimates based on <br /> <br />r <br />I <br /> <br />t <br /> <br />. <br />