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<br />found useful in other situations are effectiveness, efficiency, and distribu- <br />tional effects, each of which will now be examined in the context of endangered <br />species protection. <br />1. Effectiveness. A policy is effective if its implementation success- <br />fully achieves its objectives. It would be embarrassing, not to say a waste <br />of time and resources, to have an endangered spec ies policy that fails to <br />preserve endangered species. This means that a policy must offer a mechanism <br />for identifying species or populations whose survival is threatened, as well <br />as a means for protecting species thus identified. If the species is to be <br />preserved in its natural habitat, suitable areas where its members can live <br />undisturbed must be provided either by direct acquisition of such areas or by <br />regulation of human activity in them. <br />Perhaps because of the irreversibility of species extinction, most of the <br />discussion of endangered species protection has been expressed in either/or <br />terms: either we save this endangered species or develop that project, but <br />not both (see Bishop, 1978). However, one thing that makes thinking about <br />endangered species so difficult is that the issue does not often arise in such <br />stark, absolute terms. Far more common (and interesting) situations are (1) <br />the development in question will, with certainty, extirpate only certain indi- <br />viduals or subpopulations of the species, or (2) the impact of the project on <br />any individual is uncertain. Presumably, a policy that prevents (or at least <br />eliminates the undesirable characteristics of) such a development is more ef- <br />fective than one that does not because large populations have a better chance <br />of survival than small ones, other things being equal. (Also, larger popula- <br />tions may be "better" from the standpoint of the objectives of endangered <br />species protection quite apart from the probability of survival.) <br />Now suppose we have a set of projects ranked in order of their probable <br />impact on the survival of an endangered species, which we can regulate one by <br />one. This image suggests that whenever there is uncertainty about the impact <br />of a project, the more effective policy is to regulate it. It also suggests <br />that the more activities subject to regulation, the more effective the policy. <br />Finally, it suggests that extending the scope of regulation to projects of <br />increasingly uncertain impacts has decreasing marginal returns in effective- <br /> <br />ness. <br /> <br />5 <br />