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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I BIOLOGICAL OPINION Status of the Species opinions released to the public were anticipated to result in take of flycatchers, permanent loss of habitat, or destruction of proposed critical habitat. Eight of the 15 biological opinions determined that the original action proposed would jeopardize the continued existence of the southwestern willow flycatcher or result in destruction of proposed critical habitat. Even with Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives, several of the projects are anticipated to result in long-term effects to occupied habitat and in reduced survivorship and productivity of breeding flycatchers (Table 7). For example, Reclamation was permitted maximum flexibility to operate the modified Roosevelt Dam, including total inundation and habitat loss of occupied breeding sites that now comprise the largest breeding group in Arizona, since a 1996 fire on the San Pedro River burned what was then Arizona's largest breeding site. Forty-four flycatcher territories were estimated at Roosevelt Lake in 1996, approximately 10% of the total known southwestern willow flycatcher population. In California, the Service has issued a one-year biological opinion and incidental take statement for all take that will occur in the 567-ha South Fork Wildlife Area as the result of the COE's operations of the Lake Isabella Reservoir. A biological opinion on the long-range operation of th e reservoir is currently under development. That area is currently occupied by breeding flycatchers and represents a potential recovery area for the flycatcher. It is contiguous with one of two sites in California that is comprised of more than 20 breeding pairs, the South Fork of the Kern River. This is one of two sites rangewide where a comprehensive, long-term cowbird management program has the potential to promote recovery in nearby and adjacent habitat. Preventing use of the South Fork Wildlife Area through habitat inundation or creating a "reproductive trap" for flycatchers by inundating nesting birds, as happened in 1995, precludes the opportunity for southwestern willow flycatcher recovery at the South Fork Wildlife Area. These actions, as well as others identified in Table 7, have negatively affected the flycatcher's status significantly by reducing productivity and survivorship of flycatchers and by reducing habitat necessary for survival and recovery. Because no short-term alternatives could be identified to reduce the probability of extirpation at those sites where the action agency was permitted maximum operational flexibility (e.g., Roosevelt Dam, Lake Isabella), the Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives developed in these consultations relied on long-term strategies such as research, monitoring, and habitat acquisition. The effectiveness of this approach, however, is contingent upon maintaining survival of the species in the short term, which requires high levels of reproduction at the largest flycatcher breeding sites. For the Roosevelt Dam consultation in Arizona, the Reasonable and Prudent Alternative largely consisted of research, monitoring, management, and habitat acquisition on the lower San Pedro River 88 km southeast of Roosevelt Lake. That area had the largest concentration of flycatchers in Arizona and suitable habitat for population expansion. However, a June 1996 fire burned 1.2 km of occupied habitat that contained up to 18 pairs of flycatchers. Nests were lost and surviving birds were forced to disperse, resulting in delayed and, possibly, foregone reproduction (if suitable habitat and mates were not found). This catastrophic event significantly reduced the reproductive potential upon which the Reasonable and Prudent Alternative in the Roosevelt Dam consultation was based (Paxton et al. 1996). As a 66