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<br />outcomes, not (as is more typically the case) as a single point
<br />estimate (Table 1). Only by considering the full range of pos-
<br />sible outcomes and their associated probabilities can in-
<br />formed management and policy decisions be made. Second,
<br />when there is substantial uncertainty, the chances of making a
<br />wrong decision increase, making it more important to careful-
<br />ly evaluate the consequences of being wrong. A key question
<br />to ask is, "If we find that a mistake was made, can we reverse
<br />the consequences of the error and, if so, at what cost?"'"
<br />
<br />Acknowledgments
<br />
<br />Jeff Hard, Mike Ford, Craig Busack, and Don Campton
<br />contributed significantly to many of the ideas expressed here.
<br />This document also benefited from discussions with, and com-
<br />ments by, Susan Bishop, John Colt, Ken Currens, Walt Dick-
<br />hoff, Ross Fuller, Howard Fuss, Linda Jones, Loren Miller,
<br />Mike Schiewe, Steve Smith, and two anonymous reviewers.
<br />
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