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<br />966 <br /> <br />OSMUNDSON AND BURNHAM <br /> <br />ever, were skewed by the large year-classes that <br />materialized as sub adults in 1991 and dominated <br />the 500-549-mm size-class by 1994. The dynamic <br />nature of these large cohorts made definitive size- <br />frequency comparisons between reaches difficult. <br />However, larger fish were clearly more prevalent <br />in the upper reach: fish longer than 600 mm were <br />rarely caught in the lower reach, but they consti- <br />tuted more than 30% of captures in the upper <br />reach. Osmundson et al. (1997) indicated that <br />length-frequency distributions for adults longer <br />than 550 mm in the upper reach were relatively <br />stable during 1991-1994. <br />Though some reproduction and recruitment may <br />occur every year, strong year-classes are evidently <br />infrequent. The distinct pulse of subadult fish de- <br />tected in the lower reach in 1991 was distributed <br />throughout the river within a few years. This in- <br />fusion of new fish into the population was appar- <br />ently the result of one or more strong year-classes <br />produced during the mid-1980s, a phenomenon <br />corroborated by catch rates of larvae and young <br />of year during those years. Given that high repro- <br />ductive success later resulted in strong recruitment <br />(at least to size-classes up to 550 mm), low num- <br />bers of adult Colorado squawfish in the Colorado <br />River may be a result of insufficient reproductive <br />success during most years. <br />The degree of reproductive success and first- <br />year survival is probably determined by environ- <br />mental conditions that vary yearly rather than by <br />fluctuations in size of the spawning population <br />(i.e., egg output), because apparent increases in <br />adult numbers during the 4 years of this study did <br />not result in concomitant increases in catch rates <br />of larvae or age-O fish during the same time period. <br />Conversely, weak year-classes beginning in 1988 <br />followed the relatively strong year-classes of 1985 <br />through 1987, while the number of adults probably <br />changed little. A significant environmental factor <br />that may affect reproductive success is the mag- <br />nitude of spring flows: McAda and Kaeding <br />(1989), Osmundson and Kaeding (1991), and <br />McAda et al. (1994) found significant positive cor- <br />relations between fall catch rates of age-O Colo- <br />rado squawfish in the Colorado River and the mag- <br />nitude of spring flows that preceded the spawning <br />season. Exceptionally high flows may also be a <br />precursor to successful reproduction because the <br />strong year-classes of 1985-1987 were preceded <br />by extremely high spring flows during 1983-1984. <br /> <br />Demographic Trends <br />Comparisons with historical abundance are dif- <br />ficult because of the paucity of biological studies <br /> <br />or surveys conducted prior to the 1970s. Jordan <br />(1891) conducted surveys in the upper Colorado <br />River basin in 1889 and later described (Jordan <br />and Evermann 1896) abundance and distribution <br />of Colorado squawfish as, "Colorado Basin, very <br />abundant in the river channels as far north as the <br />base of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado (Un- <br />compahgre River at Delta)." Compiled accounts <br />and photographs collected by Quarterone (1993) <br />of Colorado River fish during the first half of this <br />century also indicate much higher abundance of <br />Colorado squaw fish in the upper Colorado River <br />than observed in this study (or studies dating back <br />to the early 1970s). Differences in abundance from <br />these historic accounts and current estimates <br />strongly suggest that the long-term population <br />trend has been downward. <br />Because of the longevity of Colorado squawfish <br />and their pulsed recruitment, the significance of <br />short-term trends in abundance is difficult to eval- <br />uate. Our study coincided with a period when re- <br />cruitment to the adult population was compara- <br />tively high and overall numbers of adults appeared <br />to increase. However, a longer time frame must be <br />considered when evaluating trends of long-lived <br />species, especially one with such a long lag-time <br />between hatching and recruitment to the adult pop- <br />ulation. Although the 1985-1987 year-classes <br />might have recently increased the size of the adult <br />population, reproductive success since 1987 has <br />been relatively low, and the trend of increase in <br />adults could be reversed in the near future. <br />Major trends were not observed in length-fre- <br />quency distributions of adult Colorado squawfish <br />in the upper reach. However, a difference in length <br />frequency of fish longer than 250 mm was ob- <br />served in the middle subreach of the upper reach <br />between the 1974-1976 period and this study (Fig- <br />ure 4), suggesting a decrease in the proportions of <br />juveniles and sub adults in the upper reach during <br />the past 20 years. More than one-third of the fish <br />in this subreach during 1974-1976 were 250-450 <br />mm. The rarity of individuals shorter than 450 mm <br />in the upper reach today, coupled with the stable <br />length distribution of adults greater than 550 mm, <br />suggests that upper-reach recruitment presently <br />comes from the lower reach. In addition, most in- <br />dividuals evidently do not move to the upper reach <br />until they have attained a length of more than 450 <br />mm (Osmundson et al. 1998). Two hypotheses may <br />explain this change in the upper-reach, length-fre- <br />quency distribution: (1) nursery habitat in the up- <br />per reach was formerly of higher quality and quan- <br />tity than in later years, and a smaller proportion <br />