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With conversion, there are obviously substitution possibilities between crops and <br />between irrigated and dryland production, both of which help to minimize the impacts <br />to regional agriculture despite the loss of 400,000 acre feet. The last item of Table 1, <br />the reduction of agriculturally generated profits, can be subtracted from the total <br />revenues of the water transfer to approximate the producer surplus of the transfer <br />strategy. At 55.05 and 400,000 acre feet, annual revenues would be 52.02 million dollars <br />annually, resulting in an annual producer surplus of 51.4 mil. <br />The modified CRSS model was simulated over the 30 year period 1986 through 2015, <br />incorporating the historical streamflow records of the period 1922 through 1951. The <br />irrigation water delivery schedule resulting from this was used to adjust the surface <br />water constraints in the agricultural models. These PQP models were then solved for <br />each year of the period 1986-2015. The resulting total annual value of irrigation water <br />is given in the second column of Table 2. Some of the near term values of less than <br />52.02 mil. (55.05 x 400,000 AF) reflect that reservoirs were currently near full capacity <br />in 1986 and the likely continued excess deliveries to the Lower Basin until CAP <br />becomes fully operational. Longer run annual values of the 400,000 AF usually exceed <br />S2.02 mil. because regional shortages, particularly in the Green River sub-basin, are <br />explicitly considered in valuing the water. Accounting for the shortages resulted in a <br />long term average value of 55.53 per acre foot. The net present value of irrigation over <br />the 30 year period is given at the bottom of Table 2, using discount rates of 3 and 6 <br />percent. <br />Of equal interest to policymakers are the transfer's offsite impacts. As seen in the third <br />and fourth columns of Table 2, CRSS estimated long term salinity reductions of about <br />37 milligrams per liter (mg/1) at Lake Havasu and 43 mg/l at Imperial Dam resulting <br />from the transfer. Using the mid-range of Gardner's estimates of the benefit of salinity <br />reduction to agriculture in the Imperial Valley of S46,000 per milligram per liter yielded <br />the fifth column of Table 2 (13). These benefits are attributable to increased crop <br />yields. It is of interest to note the time lag of 6 to 7 years in realizing the full benefits <br />of salinity reduction. Estimates of the municipal and industrial (M&I) value of reduced <br />river salinity cited in Gardner, with a mid-range of S234,500 per milligram, resulted in <br />the final column. These benefits stem from increased useful life of plumbing fixtures <br />and wastewater facilities. The decreased salinity content of the river results in an <br />economic benefit to Lower Basin water users apparently far in excess of the value of <br />decreased agricultural production in the Upper Basin. <br />The CRSS model indicated an approximate 450 gigawatt hour increase in annual <br />hydroelectric production from increased river flows associated with the transfer. Valuing <br />this at a wholesale rate of S.015 per kilowatt hour yields the third column of Table 3. <br />The value of the increased power production, even when valued at such a conservative <br />rate, dominates the value of both agriculture and salinity changes. The remainder of <br />Table 3 examines the value of increased power production for alternative power rates. <br />It is worth noting that the additional power is "firm' since the CRSS model explicitly <br />considers turbine capacity of the power system. However, it does not consider any <br />additional transmission capabilities that may be needed as a result. <br />CONCLUSIONS <br />This analysis, like many before, illustrates the low marginal value of water in crop <br />irrigation. This is not suggesting, however, the wholesale dismantling of the <br />institutional structure allocating its use. Rather, it suggests that state or Federal