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to wait out the litigation. Among the more notable barriers are the Colorado River <br />Compact, Arizona v. California, the Upper Basin Agreement, state water laws, and <br />Bureau of Reclamation contracts rying water to certain project areas. <br />Challenging this institutional structure are the above recent state level changes and the <br />well publicized Sporhase decision, which ruled that water is an article of interstate <br />commerce as defined by the Commerce Clause (102 S. Ct. 613, 1982) and states that any <br />legislation or regulation which poses an "impermissable burden" on interstate commerce <br />can be judicially invalidated. <br />A serious obstacle to the success of the Galloway proposal was the ajudication of the <br />water they claimed rights to. Colorado, like most states employing the prior <br />appropriation doctrine, allows only the consumptive use portion of a water right can be <br />transferred. Much of Galloway's water is suspected of having no history of consumptive <br />use, making it difficult to assess the volume eligible for transfer. <br />OBJECTIVES <br />This paper analyzes the direct economic and offsite environmental impacts of the <br />Galloway proposal assuming that the water rights in question come out of one of the <br />lowest valued, quantifiable use in the Upper Basin, namely irrigated agriculture. <br />Specifically, it estimates the marginal value of water for irrigated agriculture to the <br />Upper Basin for the amount involved in the transfer, and estimates the land use, <br />production, agriculture income, and input expenditure changes in the region that result. <br />It also estimates the changes in river quality, as measured by salinity, and changes in the <br />river flow, measured by hydroelectic energy produced at the intervening dam sites, <br />stemming from the transfer. The recipient of this transferred water is presumably San <br />Diego, but the analysis could apply equally to any Lower Basin user. <br />MEMOD OF ANALYSIS <br />Three mathematical programming models were developed to measure the value of water <br />to irrigated agriculture, each corresponding to a sub-basin within the Upper Colorado <br />River. The models were originally subsets of the Center for Agricultural and Rural <br />Development (CARD) linear programs of U.S. agricultural production and <br />corresponded to their producing areas (PA's) 82, 83, and 84 (). PA 82 represents the <br />Green River system, including the Yampa and White Rivers (Figure 1). PA 83 <br />encompasses the Colorado train stem, and the Grand, Dolores, and Gunnison Valleys. <br />The upper and lower San Juan Valleys are represented by PA 84. These PA's <br />correspond to the Water Resource Council's aggregate subareas 1401, 1402, and 1403, <br />respectively. The three models were developed with a profit maximizing criteria, <br />incorporating both dryland and irrigated crop production activities. Irrigated crops <br />include corn grain and silage, wheat, barley, alfalfa, and 'other' hay. Wheat and other <br />hay are the dryland crop alternatives. Rotations, rather than single crop alternatives, <br />were considered for this analysis. Both irrigated and dry cropland are divided into 8 <br />groups reflecting qualitative differences in land and corresponding yield differences. <br />Although land and water are the only constraining resources, other resources and inputs <br />are tracked with accounting rows for insight to the severity of secondary impacts on the <br />local economies. Land contraints for endogenous crops and potential cropland were <br />obtained from the 1982 National Resources Inventory (8). The upper limit on surface