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Last modified
7/14/2009 5:01:44 PM
Creation date
5/20/2009 11:04:54 AM
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UCREFRP
UCREFRP Catalog Number
7021
Author
Oamek, G., et al.
Title
Methodology For Analyzing Alternative Reservoir Shortage and Operating Criteria.
USFW Year
n.d.
USFW - Doc Type
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estimate 'expected" water deliveries for an irrigation season. Their significance is <br />explained below. <br />Many water projects cannot assure irrigators 100 percent reliable deliveries from year to <br />year. The volume of water deliveries to irrigators is then a random variable due to the <br />variability of rainfall and/or winter snowpack. Obviously, reservoirs help to smooth out <br />this variability, but the remaining uncertainty has an impact on how irrigators make <br />decisions. Since they may not be 100 percent certain of normal water deliveries in a <br />given year, irrigators must develop an expectation of their future water supply on which <br />to base their cropping decisions. As a result this expectation of water delivery can be <br />nearly as important as the actual delivery. If, for example, reduced deliveries are <br />expected, and are realized, the irrigator has minimized the adverse impacts of the <br />shortage by cutting back some of his irrigated acreage, reduced water application rates, <br />or both. <br />The process of how expectations are formed is a current issue in economic theory. This <br />paper assumes the expectation of water delivery is formed rationally. Irrigators are <br />assumed to be aware of the decision process used by the reservoir operator to allocate <br />shortages and can anticipate changes in reservoir operation. A three step process is <br />used in the mathematical programming model to implement this expectations approach: <br />(1) At the beginning of a crop year (January 1 in the first case study) irrigators observe <br />the reservoir contents. If the volume in the reservoir is greater than the shortage <br />trigger level for irrigation uses, they expect a full water delivery for the coming crop <br />year and base their cropping decisions accordingly. If the reservoir volume is below the <br />shortage trigger, expected delivery is reduced to the percent specified by the shortage <br />criteria. <br />(2) Net income maximizing cropping patterns and irrigation water application rates are <br />determined based on the expected water delivery. <br />(3) As actual water deliveries are realized, irrigators can update their farm plans to <br />make best use of available water. If actual deliveries are lower than expected, irrigators <br />can reduce water application rates and/or abandon some previously irrigated acreage to <br />maintain a full irrigation on remaining acres. <br />The output of the mathematical programming model includes net farm income for every <br />year of the period of record considered, and a summary of crop production, land use, <br />and water use, also for all years considered. Net farm income is the critical output, <br />since changes in net farm income are the marginal benefits of alternative reservoir <br />operation strategies. However, the remaining output can provide insight to the <br />magnitude of indirect impacts of alternative operations, such as increased or decreased <br />farm input sales and output processing. <br />Municipal and industrial component <br />In contrast to the relative complexity of modeling the irrigation component, the M&I <br />component uses a single value measure to calculate benefits, and change in benefits, of <br />project deliveries. Specifically, the per unit cost of the next cheapest single purpose <br />alternative available to the municipality is used to measure M&I benefits. This <br />approach is consistent with Bureau of Reclamation project planning procedures, <br />although little consideration is given to seasonal variabilities in delivery. As a result,
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