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11 <br />4,700-cfs flows would be inundated regularly during the first half of the growing season only. <br />Wetland vegetation in this area would probably survive, but there could be a shift from <br />drought-intolerant species - such as cattail, common spikerush, and juncus - to more <br />drought-tolerant species - such as common reed and scouring rush. As with the year-round <br />high fluctuation scenario, the expected shift in the boundary between the upper and lower <br />riparian zones would result in a 5% decrease in the area occupied by the upper zone and a <br />13% increase in the area of the lower zone. <br />4.2.3 Seasonally Adjusted Moderate Fluctuation <br />Under the seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation scenario, the lower boundary of <br />the upper riparian zone is expected to occur at the elevation of the 4,700-cfs flow. As with <br />the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation scenario, 4,700-cfs releases would occur through the <br />entire first half of the growing season (to July 10). Although lower flows would occur during <br />the last half of the growing season, any species of the upper zone that colonized lower <br />elevations during this period would not survive the inundation during the following year. <br />Under this scenario, the lower riparian zone is expected to occur between the <br />elevations of the 2,400- and 4,700-cfs flows. This area would be inundated daily during the <br />first half of the growing season, but then would be above the area of fluctuating flows from <br />mid July through October. As for seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, vegetation in the <br />lower riparian zone is expected to undergo a shift toward more drought-tolerant species <br />because of the extended period of low flows after July 10 of each year. The area below the <br />2,400-cfs level would be inundated continuously for most of the year. Any existing vegetation <br />below this elevation would drown, and the unvegetated zone would increase in size. Species <br />most likely to be adversely affected by this prolonged inundation include cattail, common <br />spikerush, field horsetail, juncus, and scirpus. Shifts in riparian zone boundaries and <br />creation of unvegetated areas are expected to result in a 5% decrease in the size of the upper <br />zone and a 40% decrease in the size of the lower zone. <br />4.2.4 Seasonally Adjusted Steady Flow <br />Under the seasonally adjusted steady flow scenario, the upper riparian zone is <br />expected to expand down to the elevation of the 3,400-cfs flow. Below this level, inundation <br />would be too prolonged to allow establishment of upper-zone species. The higher flows during <br />the spring peak would not prevent establishment of these species to the 3,400-cfs level <br />because higher flows would be of relatively short duration. Species most likely to increase <br />under this scenario include tamarisk, giant whitetop, golden aster, box elder, and artemisia. <br />For this scenario, the lower riparian zone is expected to occur between the elevations <br />of the 2,400- and 3,400-cfs flows. Areas above the 3,400-cfs level would be too dry to support <br />lower-zone species, except for scattered locations along the river where local conditions would <br />permit wetland vegetation to persist at slightly higher elevations. Species that would be <br />adversely affected because of drying include Canada thistle, carex, coyote willow, field