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<br />Limited population estimates are available for humpback chub. Valdez and Ryel (1995) estimated <br />the mainstem Colorado River in Grand Canyon population to be from 2682 to 4281 individuals <br />' and, using several different estimators, the Little Colorado River population was estimated from <br />4111 to 4870 individuals. Douglas and Marsh (1996) estimated the Little Colorado River <br />population using five different models. Their estimates ranged from 4,508 to 10,444 with the <br />former having the highest rating. For the upper Colorado River basin, Karp and Tyus (1990) <br />reported a population of 600 in the Yampa River. Approximately 1000 and 7000 mature <br />individuals were estimated through mark/recapture to occupy Black Rock's and Westwater <br />canyons on the Colorado River, respectively (T. Chart, UDWR; unpublished data). <br />Bow Although several historical accounts describe bonytail throughout the Colorado River <br />system more than 100 years ago (e.g., USFWS 1990; Valdez and Clemmer 1982), the basic <br />biology of G. elegans was not studied in detail until the late 1960's (Vanicek 1967; Vanicek and <br />Kramer 1969; Holden and Stalnaker 1970; Vanicek et al. 1970). Even then, early studies focused <br />on the abundance, He history, and distribution, and little was determined about its ecology. <br />During this period, bonytail numbers were greatly reduced. Thus, the ecological requirements of <br />the bonytail remain poorly understood. The last known concentration of bonytail were captured <br />in Split Mountain Canyon of the Green River through Dinosaur National Monument, Utah <br />(Vanicek 1967). Valdez (1985) identified 14 possible bonytail that included juvenile and young-of- <br />year fish in Cataract Canyon, Utah. Kaeding et al. (1986) captured one bonytail from the Black <br />' Rocks section of the Colorado River, Utah. Tyus et al. (1987) captured one bonytail in Gray <br />Canyon. In 1993, a suspected adult bonytail was captured in the Colorado River about four miles <br />upstream from its confluence with the Green River (D. Osmundson, personal communication). <br />Utah Division of Wildlife captured two potential bonytail in 1996 in the Colorado River in Cataract <br />Canyon and in Desolation Canyon (T. Chart, personal communication). <br />I Demographic Life-Stage Model <br />Crowl and Bouwes (1998) developed a generic life-stage model for Colorado River endangered <br />fish as a tool to aid in the development of management objectives. The purpose of the model was <br />to simulate demographic characteristics of all the populations. It was based on the best available <br />life-history information for each species and geomorphic reach characteristics as identified by <br />species experts. For purposes of the model, the Upper Basin was divided into three river <br />segments: (1) Yampa/Green Rivers , (2) Colorado River above the confluence with the Green <br />River, and (3) the Colorado River between the Green River Confluence and Lake Powell. The <br />model was generated to be as specific as empirical data would allow and included parameters on <br />sex ratio, survivorship means and variances for larvae, YOY, 1-, 2- and 3-yr old fish and adults. <br />Initial population values for each age class as well as carrying capacity values for each geomorphic <br />section were also used as initiation values in all models. For purposes of this model, carrying <br />capacity was used to impose documented and perceived He history and habitat constraints on each <br />geomorphic reach and was not intended to represent an actual demographic limit to population <br />growth as commonly used in ecological literature. While the model can be used in a very specific <br />manner (e.g., to model only 2-yr old fish in a particular reach), it can also be parameterized to <br />model the upper Colorado River basin as a single population. <br />' 13 <br />