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1 <br />I BASIS FOR QUANTIFIABLE POPULATION OBJECTIVES <br />Recent advancements in the application of population viability analysis, demographic population <br />models, and population genetics theory to endangered species recovery have improved methods <br />to accurately estimate quantifiable recovery objectives (Soule 1987, Waples 1990 and 1991, Mace <br />and Soule 1991, Nunney and Campbell 1993, Ralls et al. 1996, Allendorf et al. 1997). In general, <br />these methods incorporate the concept of maintaining a minimum genetic effective population size <br />while maintaining a sufficient number of individuals in the population to account for demographic <br />and environmental stochasticity (Rails et al. 1996). The effective number of breeders includes <br />only those individuals contributing genes to the next generation. The number of individuals <br />required to buffer the population from stochastic events is dependent on the demographic profile <br />of the population (e.g. birth and death rates, fecundity, generation time, etc.). Mathematical <br />population models (e.g. Lotka-Volterra), have been the basis upon which these complicated <br />biological parameters have been described for small populations. As a result, the criteria to <br />determine demographic viability has included an element of risk. As a general rule, scientists <br />have suggested that a 95% (1 in 20) chance of persistence for a specified period of time (e.g. 100 <br />yrs) as a biologically acceptable level of risk within most demographic models (Soule 1987). <br />Maintenance of Genetic Variability <br />The goal of management objectives from a genetic perspective is to maintain genetic variability <br />within populations such that they can respond to changing environmental pressures while reducing <br />the chance loss of genetic variability through drift. Maintenance of a sufficient effective <br />population size is critical to meeting these objectives. <br />Natural populations are exposed to both temporal and spatial variation in the environment. <br />Genetic diversity is necessary for adaptive evolutionary change of the population to these variable <br />selection pressures and the ability to respond is proportional the genetic variance (Falconer 1989). <br />This ability to respond may be particularly important for endangered species exposed to selection <br />pressures that are much greater than they have experienced in their evolutionary history due to, <br />for example, introduction of non-native species and habitat destruction (Lynch 1996). <br />Populations with an effective population size of N, are expected to lose a fraction 1/(2 N of their <br />genetic variation each generation through drift (Falconer 1989). For example, if Ne = 50 then the <br />population will lose I% of its genetic variation each generation or 10% after ten generations. <br />This is a substantial loss in terms of fitness where it has been shown that in historically <br />outbreeding populations a 10% loss of genetic variability can translate to a 10% loss in fitness <br />(Falconer 1989, Ralls and Ballou 1983). Franklin (1980) suggested that when N, = 50 the <br />population would experience short-term inbreeding depression whereas an N, of 500, as a lower <br />limit, provides long-term maintenance of genetic diversity. This estimate of 500 was derived by <br />Franklin (1980) and Soule (1980) by assuming a balance between mutation and random genetic <br />drift. However, this number (N. = 500) is (somewhat arbitrarily) based upon the maintenance of <br />90% of the genetic variability for 200 years (Franklin 1980, Soule 1980, Soule et al. 1986, Lande <br />4 <br />