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Kaeding 199 1). If the lower basin was once the source of the upper basin's large fish, as we <br />suggest, subsequent blockage of upstream movement by the construction of mainstem dams <br />and the eventual extirpation of lower basin populations might explain the disappearance of <br />such large individuals in recent times. <br />Survival <br />The range of suitable (P < 0.05) survival estimates of 0.83-0.87 (1991 through 1994 data) <br />was higher than that calculated by Gilpin (1993) for the Green River population (0.81) and <br />may reflect differences in environmental factors between the two rivers. However, had <br />Gilpin's (1993) methodology provided a range of estimates rather than a point estimate, his <br />range may have overlapped ours, suggesting no differences in survival rates between the two <br />rivers. Also, deviations from a stable population size in either river would affect the <br />comparability of these estimates since both were based on the assumption of stable population <br />size. Other differences in methodologies or assumptions may explain some of the difference in <br />estimated rates. <br />The method used to determine survival rate in this study was not designed to replace currently <br />available capture-recapture models for open populations such as Jolly-Seber (Jolly 1965, <br />Seber 1965) and variations thereof. However, it can be applied when consistent capture effort <br />and long capture histories necessary for the Jolly-Seber model (see Pollock et al. 1990) are <br />not available. Chief limitations of the method used here are the need for population structure <br />information over several years (to determine if age distribution is stable), and capture methods <br />that sample various-sized fish at rates representative of the actual population. Tests indicated <br />that population size structure of Colorado squawfish z 550 mm TL in the Colorado River did <br />not change significantly from 1990 through 1995 and was similar to that in 1982. We were <br />not able to test for capture bias in trammel nets, but disproportionate numbers of large fish <br />caught with electrofishing gear was consistent with known biases of this gear type (Reynolds <br />1983). When fish captured by electrofishing were included in the analysis, estimated survival <br />rates increased as expected (not shown). <br />Though historic survival rates are unknown, there are some new sources of mortality that may <br />have lowered rates during recent times, while other sources have probably changed little. <br />Accidents during high water events (abrasions, strandings, etc.), stress-related factors during <br />spawning, and avian predation by great blue herons (Ardea herodias) and bald eagles <br />(Halweetus leucocephalus) have likely always been primary sources of adult mortality. <br />Significant change in mortality rates from these factors is unlikely except perhaps that the <br />frequency of strandings may have increased in recent times because of the excavation of <br />numerous gravel-pit ponds along the floodplain of the upper reach. Colorado squawfish are <br />attracted to these habitats when ponds flood during spring runoff and strandings have been <br />documented (FWS unpublished data) when declining flows later re-isolate the ponds. <br />Substantial angling and netting activities of settlers and residents from the 1890's through the <br />A-18