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ISMP backwater sampling evaluation <br />DISCUSSION <br />The main goal of this study was to estimate bias and precision of the ISMP sampling <br />program to detect presence and estimate abundance of centrarchid fishes in backwaters of the <br />Colorado River. Overall, the ISMP sampling approach underestimated the number of backwaters <br />occupied by largemouth bass and green sunfish by about 50 %. In other words, ISMP detected <br />those centrarchid species in only every other backwater in which they occurred. When ISMP <br />sampling detected largemouth bass and green sunfish in Colorado River backwaters, abundance <br />of those taxa was underestimated compared to more reliable removal or capture-recapture <br />sampling. Details of analyses that led to these findings are discussed below. Although detection <br />and abundance estimation of centrarchids was not an original goal of ISMP sampling, managers <br />needed to understand whether this approach could be useful for such. The results of this study <br />suggest that a more intensive monitoring program needs to be developed to achieve the goal of <br />more accurate estimates of distribution and abundance of centrarchids in backwaters of the <br />Colorado River. <br />ISMP performance <br />The logistic regression analysis suggested that relatively large numbers of the target <br />centrarchid species needed to be present for ISMP sampling to simply detect the species with a <br />relatively modest probability of 0.5. The ISMP sampling technique sometimes failed to detect <br />centrarchids, especially largemouth bass, even when they were quite common (e.g., backwater # <br />' 4.2, Fig. 13). <br />-21-