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21 <br />The period of record is too short to discern any distinct cycles. The <br />sediment record for the Little Snake, however, occurs during a, drier <br />than average period. It is difficult to speculate on the relative <br />magnitude of sediment yield during dry or wet periods but generally, in <br />semiarid regions, a decrease in runoff retards erosion. <br />Instantaneous peak discharges are generally used to estimate <br />discharge frequency. Since the flows from the two gaging stations are <br />combined to determine the daily discharge at Deerlodge Park, the use of <br />instantaneous peak discharges is inappropriate. Discharges of a <br />specified return period are determined by the application of a <br />theoretical probability distribution. Richards (1982) reports that the <br />Gumbel Extreme Value distribution is a model which generates a linear <br />function on a transformed probability scale. It is a two parameter <br />model which seems to yield more representative values for the Yampa <br />River than the log-Pearson type III model. The results of the Gumbel <br />distribution and log-Pearson type III are shown in Table II. The Gumbel <br />distribution is plotted in Figure 11. The 1983 peak discharge of 20,300 <br />cfs has a return period of approximately 13 years based on the Gumbel <br />analysis and over 20 years based on the log-Pearson type III. Four <br />discharges in 62 years have exceeded 20,000 cfs which is a return period <br />of about 15 years. The maximum recorded peak discharge was 21,750 cfs <br />in 1974 (see Table III). The one hundred year event is about 27,000 <br />(Gumbel) and 22,000 cfs (Pearson). The bankfull discharge return period <br />is about 16 years based on the Gumbel distribution. <br />The 1983 Yampa aRiver hydrograph in the Monument had the fourth <br />highest peak discharge and the third largest annual volume in the 62 <br />years of historical record. These values are 6.7% and 22.6° smaller <br />than the maximum historical discharge and volume respectively. <br />Effective Discharge and Bankfull Discharge <br />Effective discharge is the flow that transports the most sediment <br />over a long period of time. It is the product of the magnitude of the <br />sediment transported by a given discharge and the frequency of <br />occurrence of that discharge. The effective discharge is approximately <br />11,500 cfs as shown in Figure 12. The return period for this discharge <br />is about 1.5 years (Table II). From the stage-discharge relationships <br />and survey measurements at Mathers Hole, the bankfull discharge was <br />calculated to be approximately 21,500 cfs, which has return period of <br />about 20 years. <br />Bankfull discharge is usually afforded the status of a "dominant" <br />discharge event which controls channel morphology. It is responsible <br />for creating the channel morphological characteristics, changing <br />width/depth ratios, forming or destroying bars and islands, and changing <br />bends and meanders. For alluvial streams this is often an intermediate <br />magnitude flow with a return period of 1.5-2.0 years (Rosgen, 1982). <br />Such a discharge is sufficiently frequent to be an effective channel- <br />forming event. Large floods are too infrequent to control channel <br />morphology. The Yampa River, however, is not alluvial stream in the <br />canyon, but an incised river with an armored bed whose channel <br />adjustment flows are limited to infrequent events.