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16 <br />inflow or stream losses occur in the intervening reach and therefore, <br />the gaging station flows represent the inflow to the Monument. On the <br />average, the USGS discharge computed by combining the discharge at the <br />stations is slightly higher than that discharge measured at Mathers Hole <br />(see Figure 6). This comparison is only relative, however, being a <br />function of the flow travel time, the time of day that the discharge <br />measurements are made and the magnitude of the unsteadiness of the flow. <br />The average difference of 6.5% (absolute) between the discharges gives <br />credibility to stage-discharge relationship at Mathers Hole. <br />The 1983 Yampa River discharge and the mean annual discharge are <br />shown in Figures 7 and 8. The mean annual discharge was calculated <br />using the period 1941-83. The period from 1922-83 constitutes the <br />entire period of record. The first 20 years of this record were wetter <br />than the remaining 40, and the 1941-83 period is more representative of <br />the conditions that exist today in the Yampa River (USGS, John Elliott, <br />personal communication, 2/83). Table I reveals the marked difference <br />between the periods. The lower discharge period, 1941-1983, has a mean <br />water yield of 1,483,700 acre-feet, compared to 1,508,400 acre-feet for <br />the entire period of record. <br />Figures 9 and 10 are plots of the five and ten year running average <br />of the annual volumes of the Yampa River at Deerlodge. The climate was <br />drier than normal from about 1935 through 1965. The 1920's and 1965- <br />1975 are wet periods which offset the dry period in the 1930's and 40's. <br />The period of record is too short to discern any distinct cycles. The <br />sediment record for the Little Snake, however, occurs during a drier <br />than average period. It is difficult to speculate on the relative <br />magnitude of sediment yield during dry or wet periods but generally, in <br />semiarid regions, a decrease in runoff retards erosion. <br />Instantaneous peak discharges are generally used to estimate <br />discharge frequency. Since the flows from the two gaging stations are <br />combined to determine the mean daily discharge at Deerlodge Park, the <br />use of instantaneous peak discharges is inappropriate. Discharges of a <br />specified return period are determined by the application of a <br />theoretical probability distribution. Richards (1982) reports that the <br />Gumbel Extreme Value distribution is a model which generates a linear <br />function on a transformed probability scale. It is a two parameter <br />model which seems to yield more representative values for the Yampa <br />River than the log-Pearson type III model. The results of the Gumbel <br />distribution and log-Pearson type III are shown in Table II. The Gumbel <br />distribution is plotted in Figure 11. The 1983 peak discharge of 20,300 <br />cfs has a return period of approximately 13 years based on the Gumbel <br />analysis and over 20 years based on the log-Pearson type III. Four <br />discharges in 62 years have exceeded 20,000 cfs which is a return period <br />of about 15 years. The maximum recorded peak discharge was 21,750 cfs <br />in 1974 (see Table III). The one hundred year event is about 27,000 <br />(Gumbel) and 22,000 cfs (Pearson). <br />The 1983 Yampa River hydrograph in the Monument had the fourth <br />highest peak discharge and the third largest annual volume in the 62 <br />years of historical record. These values are 6.7% and 22.6% smaller <br />than the maximum historical discharge and volume respectively.