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11 <br />Monument boundary. The results of the calibration are shown in Table 1 <br />and Figures 8-13. The mean error for all six years of study for the 24 <br />weekly time increments was 0.141C with the single maximum error for a <br />given time increment of 2.33°C. Some years were more accurately <br />calibrated than others because of the sporadic availability of water <br />temperature records for Maybell and Lily gaging stations on the Yampa <br />and Little Snake Rivers respectively. Whereas the water temperature <br />records on the Green River at Flaming Gorge and Jensen were nearly <br />complete, the Maybell was only about 60 percent and the Lily gage about <br />80 percent complete. Those missing water temperature data were <br />simulated using the regression models in the water temperature computer <br />model rackage. The accuracy of the calibration underscores the <br />reliabiiity in regressing the water temperature simulation at these two <br />gaging stations. <br />The historical water temperatures for the six years of study were <br />predicted at Mathers Hole (river mile 17.5) representing the cobble <br />reach of the Yampa River from river mile 20.5 to river mile 16.5 <br />upstream of the Green River confluence. This is the river reach <br />where Colorado squawfish spawn during the months of July and August <br />(U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), 1984). Migration of the <br />Colorado squawfish to the spawning reach was observed to-begin at water <br />temperatures approximately 161C. Spawning behavior was observed when <br />water temperatures exceeded 19-20°C. The water temperature at Mathers <br />Hole for the historical discharges and the predicted composite <br />discharges (simulated) are shown in Figures 14-19. <br />The greatest deviation from the historical water temperatures at <br />Mathers Hole for the simulated composite water discharges occurred for <br />those water years with greatest water volumes and surpluses (see Table 2 <br />and Figures 2-7). Those years displaying the greatest deviation <br />include 1975, 1982, and 1983. The water temperature deviation from the <br />historical is greatest for 1983 (Figure 19), the year of highest <br />discharge and volume of the years studied. A reduction in water <br />discharge from that historically measured, results in an increase in <br />water temperature during the months of July and August for the same <br />meteorological conditions. The NPS minimum streamflow hydrograph has no <br />effect on the date when the water temperature of 16°C is exceeded except <br />for 1983, when it is reached approximately one week earlier in the year. <br />The 20°C departure water temperature for spawning of the Colorado <br />squawfish would be reached about two weeks earlier in the summer of <br />1983. It would also reach earlier in 1975 and 1982 by 1.5 and 0.5 weeks <br />respectively. In four of the six study years (with the exclusion of <br />1976 and 1977) the annual peak water temperature for the composite flows <br />are higher than the historical flows. <br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br />The NPS minimum streamflow hydrograph resembles, in shape and <br />magnitude, the mean annual hydrograph (Figure 22). This hydrograph has <br />little effect on the flows and water temperatures for low volume years. <br />On wetter than average years, the reduced simulated discharge causes <br />the water temperature to rise faster and peak higher than would have