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<br />Chapter 3 <br /> <br />FORCES SHAPING AGRICULTURAL TRENDS <br />IN LAND AND WATER USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES <br /> <br />American agriculture is influenced by many factors, the most' important <br />of which are the economic forces. HOW will the demand for <br />agricultural products be affected by continued population growth, both <br />domestic and foreign? Will relative income grow along with <br />population, thereby sustaining or increasing the demand for <br />agricultural products? Will consumption preferences for agricultural <br />products remain stable, or will there be major shifts in per capita <br />consumption of various products or marked changes in the way some <br />commodities are consumed? FOr example, will more or less grain be <br />produced and how much will be used for direct human consumption, for <br />animal consumption, or for alcohol production? Will farm size <br />continue to increase? What effect will farm size have on ownership <br />patterns, profitability, and the way land is used? Will the changing <br />geographical distribution of the U.S. population continue to cause the <br />conversion of agricultural lands to urban purposes? Will prices of <br />land, labor, energy, chemicals, and other production inputs continue <br />to escalate? What effect will foreign exchange rates have on the <br />relative value and desirability of U.S. agricultural goods? <br />Social and political forces are becoming more important in shaping <br />American agriculture. Will "tight money" be a continuing economic <br />policy? Will present price policies for agriculture continue? Will <br />restrictions on the uses of pesticides and herbicides and other <br />environmental safeguards be strengthened or relaxed? Will <br />agricultural products be a greater or lesser lever in U.S. foreign <br />policy? <br />The future role of science and technology in shaping agriculture <br />is unknown. Can new plant varieties with greater yields, shorter <br />maturity, or greater disease resistance be counted on to alter <br />agricultural output and production practices? Will fertilizer and <br />pesticides be looked to as the major sources of expanded <br />productivity? will new production practices be found, or known ones <br />extended, to reduce soil loss and arrest degradation and depletion of <br />water resources? <br />These major social, economic, political, and technological <br />questions are addressed in this chapter as a basis for projecting <br />agricultural trends in land and water use and management practices. <br /> <br />14 <br />