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<br />the translocation, and there is a 1: 1 sex ratio, and all fish have an equal probability of <br />contributing offspring to the next generation, this would result in a founder population <br />with a maximum Ne of 600. A more realistic scenario is that a large proportion of fish <br />will not survive the translocation effort (because of stress, out-migration, floods, etc.), <br />the sex ratio will not be 1: 1, and there will be differential reproduction (because of <br />multiple year classes, unequal family sizes, etc.). As a result, the founding effective <br />population size should be expected to be far less than 600 (i.e., below the minimum <br />viable population standards of Ne = 500; Franklin 1980). <br /> <br />Third, should the translocation continue to be successful, and a large number of <br />offspring occur from an insufficient number of founders, the action may have potential to <br />decrease the Ne of the main population of humpback chub below Chute Falls. This <br />could happen if a large enough number of offspring from the founder population (with <br />low Ne) survive, and interbreed with fish below Chute Falls (with a higher Ne). This <br />potential problem is considered by some as highly unlikely because, if the fish above <br />had reduced fitness from inbreeding, they would be less likely to survive, mate, and <br />reproduce than the fish in the main LCR population. As a result, the contribution of <br />such hypothetical fish is likely to be much less than their numbers would predict (P. <br />Hedrick, ASU, pers. com.). Nevertheless, offspring produced from above Chute Falls <br />may have an increased chance for survivorship, since they are less proximate to the <br />mainstem Colorado River and less likely to be transported by flood events into the <br />mainstem Colorado River. In addition, offspring from the translocated fish may <br />demonstrate increased survivorship because of the unexploited habitat and the <br />apparently much higher food resources above Chute Falls. <br /> <br />Fourth, there are potentials for selection to act upon the translocated fish (i.e., move <br />away from the main genotype), and thus there is potential for migrants leaving this <br />isolated group to impact the genotype of the main LCR population, even with minimal <br />movement (see Ford 2002). There are documented cases of subtle decreases <br />occurring in fitness when gene flow occurs between subpopulations experiencing <br />different or conflicting selective forces (review in Storfer 1999). If fish are successful at <br />reproducing and remaining above Chute Falls,. this might be expected to impose <br />selection for a resident genotype. Douglas and Marsh (1996) hypothesized that there <br />may be a resident genotype developing in the LCR since closure of Glen Canyon Dam. <br />Because humpback chub migrate between the mainstem Colorado and the LCR during <br />their life history (Valdez and Rye11995, Gorman and Stone 1999), this has led some to <br />speculate that before reproduction occurs, the translocated fish will move toward the <br />mainstem. However, Gorman and Stone (1999) found that smaller adults (< 300 mm) <br />tend to remain as residents in the LCR. In addition, the unusually high growth rates <br />already observed in the fish translocated in 2003 (Stone and Sponholtz 2003) suggest <br />that within year or two some fish may commence spawning activities. If Chute Falls is a <br />barrier against upstream movement of fish (and no data has convincingly shown <br />otherwise), fish that survive generations to reproduce above Chute Falls will undergo <br />selection for being non-migratory. <br /> <br />37 <br />