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<br />. .,~ _~,. ".'.'V. ~.' .-:. '.~_" :-: _.:.:. -~,,'< .~"':~. ,---......~"";...;'i;;-;. <br /> <br />agriculture, to municipal and industrial uses in order to satisfy the demands of a rapidly <br />growing population. The demands for the endangered fishes will compete with municipal and <br />industrial demands for water currently used in agricultural production. The designation of <br />critical habitat is not the primary cause of declining agricultural production in the area, but <br />will accelerate the ongoing conversion from agricultural uses to other, predominantly <br />municipal and industrial uses. <br /> <br />III. Estimating Direct Economic Impacts <br /> <br />The resource reallocations described above were translated into estimates of output changes in <br />directly affected sectors of local and regional economies dependent upon the river. In the <br />Colorado River study, prohibitions upon further water depletions in critical habitat reaches <br />along the upper river were modeled by reducing the output of the agricultural sectors of <br />Colorado and Wyoming. The rationale for this approach is that in lieu of developing Colorado <br />River waters for municipal and industrial uses, the municipalities in the two states will <br />increase the rate at which irrigation water rights are being purchased and transferred to other <br />uses. The amount of agricultural output foregone was computed using estimates of crop <br />consumptive irrigation requirements, field -irrigation efficiencies, cropping patterns and yields; <br />all taken from published sources. State agricultural production was reduced to match the <br />equivalent amount of water depletions foregone due to critical habitat designations based upon <br />state water planning documents. <br /> <br />The effects of critical habitat designations on water users below Flaming Gorge and Glen <br />Canyon dams were modeled in two ways. First, a sample of outfitters providing rafting, <br />fishing and other recreational services to the public was interviewed in person to assess their <br />reactions to the flow changes needed to enhance spawning habitat for endangered fish. Each <br />outfitter was shown visual hydrographs of average river flows by week, both before and after <br />critical habitat designations, for reaches of the river where he operated. Each outfitter was <br />then asked to identify periods of the year when his operations would be affected by the new <br /> <br />10 <br />