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E TI NT~UO Plannin Horizonsand ProductionScenarios <br />g <br />2.1 PLANNING HORIZONS <br />Three planning horizons were established for this study: near-term (2007-2017), mid-term <br />(2018-2035), and long-term (2036-2050). The timeframes assigned to each of these planning <br />horizons were based primarily on the timelines established for similar water and energy studies <br />in Colorado. The near-term planning horizon (2007-2017) builds upon existing natural gas data <br />for 2007 and continues through 2017, a 10-year timeframe that coincides with the end of the 10- <br />year Research Development and Demonstration (RD&D) Oil Shale Leases~ and that is consistent <br />with the timeframes and data cited in the AGNC Study (BBC 2008) for natural gas development <br />in portions of the study area. The mid-term planning horizon (2018-2035) was established to be <br />consistent with the end of the AGNC Study and similar to the planning horizon in the SWSI <br />Report at 2030, within 5 years of the end of the mid-term planning horizon. The long-term <br />planning horizon (2036 and beyond) recognizes that energy development activity in the study <br />area may continue beyond the next 27 years, with no certain endpoint. For purposes of this <br />study, 2050 is the endpoint of the long-term planning horizon. <br />2.2 PRODUCTION SCENARIOS <br />This study assumes three production scenarios to represent the water demands for each of the <br />major energy industries under three general production output criteria: low, medium, and high <br />production, that represent full energy production. The production scenarios established for this <br />study are bounded by limited production on one end (low production scenario), and expanded <br />production that maximizes development on the other (high production scenario). The low <br />production scenario uses existing and available production information for the near-term <br />planning horizon and increases over time through the mid- and long-term planning horizons at a <br />relatively steady rate of development. An intermediate scenario, medium production, is also <br />provided and represents assumptions that are between the low and high production scenarios and <br />energy extraction and development processes. The high production scenario is based upon <br />forecasted maximum development assumptions in available reports and documents for the <br />' Five RD&D leases have been issued in the Piceance Basin of Colorado (one each awarded to Chevron Shale Oil <br />Company and EGL Resources, Inc., and three awarded to Shell Frontier Oil & Gas); one RD&D lease has been <br />issued in the Uinta Basin, Utah (awarded to OSEC), outside the study area (BLM 2006a-2006c). <br />~+~ 2-1 <br />