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balance. Any unsuccessful simulations will be noted and summarized for the StateMod <br />programmer to review. <br />In addition to the efforts to develop the data-centered automation tools; the cost estimate <br />assumes that 100 simulates will be run far the alternate historical hydrology. This <br />amounts to a total effort of about 100 hours at an average estimated run time of 10 <br />minutes per subbasin for each alternate hydrology simulation. Automating these tasks <br />will allow the model outputs to be an computers dedicated to these efforts during off- <br />business hours. <br />6.7 Summarize Alternate Historical Hydrol°~y - Conduct statistical diagnostic analyses of <br />the ensemble of alternate hydrology, including analyses of the statistics of annual flows <br />and the statistics of droughts and wet spells, using TSTooI to the extent possible. The <br />results of the alternate historical hydrology will be compared to historical hydrology <br />using TSTooI. These analyses will provide information that allows comparison of the <br />extended hydrology with statistics of the paleo data (e.g. tree rings or reconstructed index <br />flaws) and observed hydrology, for the purpose of establishing confidence in the <br />extended hydrology and characterizing the nature of droughts and wet spells it contains. <br />Prepare a technical memorandum describing the methods, analysis and results of the Task <br />6 efforts, including a summary of the results of the diagnostic analyses comparing the <br />extended historical hydrology with the historical hydrology and submit to the CWCB for <br />review, comment and revisions by the consulting team. <br />Deliverables: <br />6.1 Technical memorandum describing results of the literature review, describing the results <br />of the diagnostic analyses and describing the recommended approach. <br />6.2 Technical memorandum documenting the selected approach. <br />6.3 An ensemble of alternate hydrology. <br />5.4 Technical memorandum describing the methods and results of testing StateCU and <br />StateMod, and describing any changes made to StateCU and StateMod to accommodate <br />reconstructed flows. <br />6.5 A technical memorandum documenting the results of diagnostic statistical testing of the <br />ensemble of alternate hydrology. <br />Task 7: Alternate H drolo of Climate Chan e & Forest Chan e <br />Qbjective <br />The objective of Task 7 is to provide agency coordination, literature review, diagnostic analysis, <br />data preparation, and model testing to generate projections for temperature, precipitation, <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope t 7 8/281200R <br />CRWAS Phase] Contract Scope ~X A Pina] <br />