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CRWAS_Phase1 Scope Final
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CRWAS_Phase1 Scope Final
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Last modified
4/17/2013 10:21:34 AM
Creation date
10/16/2008 8:58:56 AM
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Decision Support Systems
Title
CRWAS - Water Availability Study of the Colorado River and Tributaries - Phase 1 Scope of Work
Description
Scope of Work for Colorado River Water Availability Study
Decision Support - Doc Type
Scope of Work
Date
8/1/2008
DSS
Colorado River
Basin
Colorado Mainstem
Contract/PO #
C154124
Bill Number
SB07-122, HB08-1346
Prepared By
Boyle Engineering
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In developing this alternate hydrology, the CWCB directed that special consideration be given to <br />the methods used by Reclamation in support of the Lower Basin rulemaking. The methods used <br />by Reclamation, along with other modern methods far streamflow reconstruction and <br />incorporation of climate change impacts, generate ensembles of streamflow. An ensemble <br />consists of a number of alternate traces of streamflow that together capture the statistics of a <br />particular system. By incorporating ensembles in a water resources analysis, information can be <br />obtained about the probability of system conditions, which in turn can be used to assess the risk <br />of shortfall associated with a given quantification of water availability. This information about <br />probability is unfamiliar to some practitioners and policy makers, so consideration will be given <br />to developing approaches far summarizing and presenting ensemble-based results. <br />Approach: <br />6.1 Literature Review and Method Evaluation -Assess available methods for extending <br />historical hydrology. Perform a literature review and evaluation of alternative means of <br />developing alternative historical hydrology. Interface directly with Reclamation staff and <br />researchers. Prepare a technical memorandum describing the results of the evaluation. <br />6.2 Anal sis of Tree-Rin Data -Conduct statistical diagnostic analyses of the available tree- <br />ring data and the observed hydrologic record. Prepare a technical memorandum <br />describing the results of the diagnostic analyses, including analyses of the statistics of <br />annual flows and the statistics of draughts and wet spells. These analyses will provide <br />information that will be used in formulating the methodology far extending historical <br />hydrology, which will be done in Subtask 6.3. The cost estimate assumes that naturalized <br />flow data will be readily available from CWCB or CWCB contractors or that tree-ring <br />data, reconstructed PDSI, ar reconstructed index flow data (e.g. flows at Lees Ferry) will <br />be available from Federal or university sources. The cost estimate assumes same direct <br />costs associated with obtaining available data from Federal or university sources. If <br />paled data are not available from Federal or university sources, published reconstructions <br />of streamflow at Lees Ferry or reconstructions of gridded PDSI, which are already in <br />hand, will be used as the basis for reconstruction of flaws in the following tasks. <br />6.3 Recommendation for Extending Historical H r~drolo~y -Determine method for extending <br />historical hydrology based on the results of Subtask 6.1 and prepare a written <br />recommendation for the selected approach. Submit this to CWCB for review and meet <br />with CWCB staff to discuss the recommendation. Based on comments from CWCB <br />prepare a final recommendation for an approach to developing an extended historical <br />hydrology. The cost estimate assumes that two review cycles will be required. The cost <br />estimate assumes that the method that is adopted will be substantially similar to the <br />USBR methodology developed by Jim Prairie and Balaji Rajagopalan. <br />6.4 Methods for Alternate H drolo and Water Use -Prepare data and coded methods to <br />generate traces of alternate hydrology and water use using the method selected in Subtask <br />6.3. The suggested method involves re-sequencing annual observed data developed in <br />Tasks 4 and S, in so no further use of StateMad/baseflows ar StateCU is required in <br />developing the extended historical hydrology (StateCU will be used in Task 7 to <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope 15 8~28~20Q8 <br />CRWAS Phasel Contract Scope EX A Pinal <br />
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