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Last modified
9/26/2011 8:31:55 AM
Creation date
7/10/2008 3:23:16 PM
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Decision Support Systems
Title
CRDSS Task 11.7 - Verify Diversion Estimates
Description
This memo describes the results of Subtask 11.7, Verify Diversion Estimates.
Decision Support - Doc Type
Task Memorandum
Date
11/1/1999
DSS Category
Surface Water
DSS
Colorado River
Basin
Colorado Mainstem
Contract/PO #
C153728
Grant Type
Non-Reimbursable
Bill Number
SB92-87, HB93-1273, SB94-029, HB95-1155, SB96-153, HB97-008
Prepared By
Boyle
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Occurrences Average Value(af7 <br /> Ph IIIa Task 11.7 Ph IIIa Task 11.7 <br />9366500 La Plata River At Co-Nm State Line 2 5 -120 -38 <br />9362000 Florida River At Bondad, Co. 8 15 -839 -1106 <br />9355000 Spring Creek At La Boca, Co. 5 10 -104 -180 <br />9354500 Los Pinos River At La Boca, Co. 3 -1363 <br />9179500 Dolores River At Gateway, Co. 1 1 -1467 -558 <br />9171100 Dolores River Near Bedrock, Co. 2 3 -992 -1189 <br />9169500 Dolores River At Bedrock, Co. 2 5 -1295 -1068 <br />9168100 Disappointment Ck Nr Dove Ck, Co. 6 4 -12 -14 <br />9166500 Dolores River At Dolores, Co. 1 1 -1847 -1848 <br />TOTAL 161 216 <br />Although there are 55 more incidents of negative baseflows in the Task 11.7, 36 of these are in <br />the McElmo Creek basin (including Hartman Draw), where baseflow estimates are dominated <br />by imports from the Dolores basin. Errors in the diversion estimates for Main Canals No. 1 and <br />No. 2 may be of the same magnitude as the native flow in McElmo Creek. The Dolores <br />Project/McElmo Creek area was uniquely difficult to simulate in Phase IIIa, perhaps due to poor <br />data. For these reasons, the data estimation technique should be evaluated by looking at its <br />performance in the rest of the basin. <br />Elsewhere, 19 more negative baseflow estimates occurred, out of several thousand possibilities. <br />This was in the range of our expectations, and indicates that the algorithm is not introducing <br />estimates that violate physical possibilities a significant portion of the time. Average magnitude <br />of the negative flows does not appear to be significantly different overall, with some <br />magnitudes increasing in Task 11.7, and others decreasing, relative to Phase IIIa. <br />Table 8 -Comparison of Negative Baseflow Occurrences in Yampa Model. <br /> Average Value(a~ <br /> Ph IIIa Task 11.7 Ph IIIa Task 11.7 <br />9238900 Fish Creek At Upper Station 1 1 -97 -60 <br />9246920 Fortification Creek near Fortification, CO 7 11 -17 -16 <br />9247600 Yampa River Below Craig, CO 2 -2366 <br />9251000 Yampa River Near Maybell, CO 1 -1338 <br />TOTAL 8 15 <br />The Yampa basin model shows similar results. There are more negative baseflow estimates as <br />expected, but not enough to have a large impact on overall model performance. <br />Appendix E E-85 <br />
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