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Section E.1 <br />Final <br />TO: File <br />FROM: David M. Frick, Ayres Associates <br />SUBJECT: Task Memorandum 10.1 -Data Extension Feasibility <br />Introduction <br />The feasibility of developing a longer period of record and possibly generating stochastic data for <br />the CRDSS Water Resources Planning Model is being investigated by the State of Colorado, <br />assisted by Boyle Engineering Corporation and Ayres Associates. This memo presents results and <br />ideas arising from this investigation, as well as conclusions and recommendations. The objective of <br />this task was as follows: <br />Investigate options and develop an approach for extending the period of record <br />within the CRDSS database to enhance the Water Resources Planning models. <br />Approach <br />The investigation has been divided into several subtasks including data extension feasibility, <br />evaluation of historical data extension, evaluation of stochastic data development, and review of <br />other data extension techniques. This memo covers data extension feasibility, evaluated by: (1) <br />reviewing the structure and operation of the CRDSS models, and evaluating the possible addition of <br />a data extension/generation model; (2) reviewing the periods of record (POR) used in several <br />studies throughout Colorado for consistency of concurrent record and basis for period selection; and <br />(3) conducting interviews with several agencies regarding the need for and use of an extended <br />period of record in the CRDSS Water Resources Planning Model. <br />CRDSS Model Review/Evaluation <br />Evaluation of the CRDSS model structure and the extension of historical data presented later in this <br />memorandum suggest that the addition of a data extension/generation model in the system would be <br />feasible. The flowchart on the following page is suggested. <br />Flows maybe naturalized by executing StateMod or another technique to be determined. The <br />statistics and data extension/generation portion of this flowchart will consist of a program allowing <br />the user to choose from among several techniques for data extension or generation. Amore detailed <br />discussion is presented in the Task 10.2 Memorandum. <br />Appendix E E-1 <br />