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JuNr:1978 BERNARD A. SILVERMAN What Do We Need in Weather Modification? BERNARD A. SILVERMAN Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo. 80225 (Manuscript received 13 March 1978) ABSTRACT The needs of weather modification are examined from the vantage point of a manager, from the Federal sector, of applied research and development in precipitation management. Several problems in the perspec- tive with which weather modification is viewed in the scientist, user and political communities are discussed. This image of weather modification has given rise to a credibility gap which hinders its technological de- velopment. Several courses of action are suggested to improve this image and move the field of weather modification forward both scientifically and socially. 1. Introduction The question, "What do we need in weather modi- fication?" is one that responsible managers, researchers and users of weather modification must continually ask themselves. Significant events of the last few years make this question particularly relevant at this time. Among the more important events are the following: 1) Great concern over the widespread drought in the United States has triggered an unprecedented number of state and locally supported weather modi- fication programs, and along with it, reaction that has ranged from a total lack of credibility in its effectiveness to the ill- informed perception that any seeding - induced precipitation in the intended target area will inevitably be at the expense of precipitation that would have fallen in "downwind" areas. 2) Reduction in the number of Federal agencies with active weather modification research programs and a steady decrease in the level of funding by those Federal agencies that are still active. 3) Recent completion of several large -scale weather modification programs, i,e., the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project (CRBPP), the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE), and the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE), the results of which are being perceived as having fallen short of projected expecta- tions, despite the fact that they have made significant contributions to the science of weather modification. 4) Launching of two new major research programs by the Bureau of Reclamation, i.e., the High Plains Cooperative Program (HIPLEX) and the Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project (SCPP). 5) Passage by the U.S. Congress of Public Law 94 -490, the National Weather Modification Policy Act of 1976 and the creation of an auspicious Weather 867 Modification Advisory Board thereunder which is charged with recommending a national weather modi- fication policy, a national program of research and development and an organizational structure for car- rying out the policy and program. What, indeed, do we need in weather modification? I will attempt to respond to this difficult question by first commenting briefly on some problems in, what I term, the perspective with which weather modifica- tion is viewed in the scientist, user and political com- munities. Then, I will suggest several courses of action which I feel will move the field of weather modification forward both scientifically and techno- logically. I will discuss the needs of weather modifica- tion from the vantage point of a manager, from the Federal sector, of applied research and development in precipitation management and will confine my remarks to this important area of weather modification. 2. Problems in perspective The past and present image of the field of weather modification has given rise to a credibility gap which constantly places obstacles in the path of its techno- logical progress. Three main problems in perspective are, in my estimation, responsible for the creation of this credibility gap. a. The drought - relief fallacy There are too many potential users and policy makers who view weather modification only as a drought- relief measure. Funding and operational pro- grams increase during drought periods, apparently with the expectation that water deficits that took years to develop will be quickly replenished. Weather modification is often invoked as a desperation measure,