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DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT <br />opportunities to manage spills and base flow releases with expected benefits to <br />the downstream environment. Each year in Table 1 is color coded to reflect no <br />spill (white), small spill (pink), medium spill (light green) and large spill (dark <br />green and blue) years. Table 1 provides a quick visual summary of the expected <br />spill patterns over long time spans and will be applied in the correlation analysis <br />that follows. <br />The baseflow component considered for this analysis includes 29,300 AF of <br />Project water allocated for downstream fishery releases, and 700 AF of Project <br />water allocated for augmentation needs of the BOR's Paradox Salinity Unit. In <br />addition, up to 3,900 AF of water may be released to meet senior downstream <br />water demands, which are non-project bypass flows. No allocation for senior <br />water rights downstream of McPhee Dam exists within Dolores Project <br />allocations. Thus for the purpose of the analysis, 30,000 AF is used to represent <br />the Project allocations for downstream baseflow release. The Paradox <br />augmentation water is not subject to allocation shortages. <br />500,000 <br />450,000 <br />400,000 <br />350,000 <br />300,000 <br />250,000 <br />200,000 <br />150,000 <br />100,000 <br />50,000 <br />Figure 1. DRD Hydrologic Model output summarized by modeled year. Data <br />includes baseflow (30,000 AF) and one year of modeled shortage in 1977. <br />9/5/06 4 <br />