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<br />... In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our south, both in
<br />Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico, These forecasts match soil moisture-based statistical forecasts
<br />issued at the Climate Prediction Center.
<br />.... Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La
<br />Nifia, just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable El Nino event later this
<br />year remains uncertain, Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado, If the
<br />recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought conditions may worsen yet again, even if we receive average
<br />rainfall,
<br />
<br />Colorado Climate Center (CCC) - Nolan Doesken
<br />The CCC drought data and presentation can be found on the web at http://ccc,atmos,colostate,edu Mr. Doesken Made
<br />the point that potential flooding should deserve some attention, His historical perspective was: 140 years ago we were
<br />cleaning up flood damages, 128 years ago there was major flood damages in Denver, 110 year ago in Boulder there
<br />were big flood, 100 years ago in
<br />Fort Collins there were floods, 83
<br />years ago we were doing clean up
<br />in Pueblo from floods, 69 years
<br />ago there was flooding on the
<br />Republican River, 49 years ago
<br />there was flood damages from
<br />Huerfano to Pueblo counties to
<br />Las Animas counties, Larry Lang
<br />pointed out that in today's dollars
<br />there would $2 billion in flood
<br />damages if we had another 1965
<br />flood, Nolan continued with 23
<br />years ago there was an incredible
<br />flood on Frijole Creek with 16"
<br />of rain in four hours, Nolan
<br />finished with the fact that only
<br />five years ago we were cleaning
<br />up flood damages on Fountain
<br />Creek in EI Paso and Pueblo
<br />Counties,
<br />
<br />COLORADO
<br />73
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<br />I! I., I 86 I
<br />---_-'_____1 \L- (I .___.5~_
<br />
<br />Precipitation
<br />(percent)
<br />
<br />. 0-9
<br />.'0-29
<br />.30-49
<br />.50,69
<br />.70-89
<br />90-109
<br />.110-129
<br />.,30-,49
<br />.'SO-169
<br />.170-189
<br />190 - 209
<br />.210-229
<br />. 23D -249
<br />.>250
<br />
<br />
<br />Water Year 2004 (October 2003 through May 2004) precipitation as a percent of the 1971-2000 average,
<br />
<br />Generally speaking, storms that
<br />occur later in July and August tend to stop moving and stall a bit and hang around, This time of year they keep
<br />moving, From the drought perspective: the stream flows are lower and the snow is pretty much gone, but the system is
<br />not recharged, We are better than 2002 and two years later it's still not every good, In April we take a look back and
<br />say "thank you the moisture was wonderful",
<br />
<br />Impact Task Force Reports
<br />Municipal Water Task Force Barry Cress - conditions are the same as last time restrictions went into place, We are
<br />working with six projects around the state that are mostly plumbing and water quality, Things like circulation lines
<br />and install water meters, The Pinewood District will get a loan from the CWCB to obtain better water rights,
<br />Bob Stegner, Denver Water - reservoirs are about 81 % of full for Denver water and customers are using 27% less
<br />water in May than in previous years,
<br />
<br />Next Meeting
<br />The next meeting was tentatively set for July 20th and that coincides with the next CWCB Board Meeting in Delta,
<br />Colorado, The Water Availability Task Force Chair, Brad Lundahl, will pick a new date and location, All of the
<br />interested parties will be notified via email. The Flood Task Force will only meet again in the event of significant
<br />flooding in Colorado this summer. In the event of flooding the CWCB will coordinate state, federal flood programs to
<br />assist in documentation, recovery, and floodplain mapping operations,
<br />
<br />6
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