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Figure 10. Crop Type Changes Over Time for Representative Junior Ditches <br />Boulder County Junior Ditch Crop/Acreage Comparison <br />90000 ^ ^ 100% <br />80000 90% <br /> <br />70000 80% <br /> <br />60000 70% <br />50000 ^ 60% <br /> <br />40000 50% <br /> <br />30000 ~ 40% <br /> <br />20000 <br />,--_. ..-, ® 30% <br /> _ 20% <br /> <br />10000 ~ ~~ <br />`~~~ <br /> ~ <br />_~ _ <br />~ <br />- 10% <br />0 _ __ 0% <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Ag Stat Corn Ag Stat Grains Ag Stat Alfalfa <br /> Ag Stat Beans Ag Stat Sugarbeets Ag Stat Pasture <br /> Ag Stat Total o GIS Beans-0600611 GIS Alfalfa-0500519 <br /> ^ GIS Pasture-0500519 o GIS Alfalfa-0600611 • GIS Pasture-0600611 <br /> ~ GIS Corn-0600611 • GIS Grains-0600611 <br />Based on this comparison, it does not appear that the relative priority of a water right can <br />be used to predict changes in crop type in conjunction with AgStats. Figures 9 and 10 <br />also show that changes in crop type over time at the county level, as represented by <br />AgStats, are not good predictors of changes in crop type at the ditch level. <br />Approach and Results -Hydrologic Analysis <br />Hydrologic conditions were evaluated to determine if hydrology could help predict <br />acreages and/or crop type at the ditch level. Using the South Platte at Julesburg <br />(06764000) and South Platte River at Kersey (06754000) streamflow gages and the <br />Analyze Pattern option in TSTooI, "dry", "average", and "wet" years were defined based <br />on the 25% and 75% mean monthly flows between 1950 to 2005 (Table 2). <br />Table 2. Hydrologic Conditions during GIS Coverage years <br />Year Gage I D ®ct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun J u I Aug Sep <br />1956 06754000_ pat DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY AVG DRY DRY AVG DRY <br />1956 06764000_ pat DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY AVG DRY <br />1976 06754000_ pat AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG DRY AVG AVG <br />1976 <br />1987 <br />1987 <br />2001 06764000_ <br />06754000_ <br />06764000_ <br />06754000_ pat <br />pat <br />pat <br />pat AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG AVG <br /> <br /> <br />AVG DRY <br />AVG <br /> <br />AVG <br />AVG <br />AVG <br />AVG <br />AVG <br />AVG <br />AVG AVG <br />AVG <br /> <br />AVG <br />2001 06764000_ pat AVG DRY ~ DRY AVG AVG DRY AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG AVG <br />As shown, 1956 was a dry, 1976 and 2001 were relatively average years, and 1987 was a <br />wet year. Changes in acreage and crop type at the county level (Figures 6 through 8) and <br />at the ditch level (Figures 9 and 10) do not appear to be related to the hydrologic <br />conditions that were present in these years. <br />Page 8 of 11 <br />