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<br />Klaus' Summary (11 June 2004) <br /> <br />· The most recent EI Nino event - declared over a year ago - tried to make a comeback last <br />fall, but has been 'clinically dead' for most of 2004. Near-neutral ENSO conditions <br />remain the safest bet for the next few months, with some hope remaining for a resurgent <br />EI Nino later this year. <br /> <br />· After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, and dry May), June has left much of Colorado <br />drier than normal for the month so far. A few notable exceptions received excessive <br />precipitation amounts in the form of damaging hail storms. We are now drifting into the <br />so-called "mini-dry season" from mid-June until early July that is often associated with the <br />hottest temperatures of the year, and reduced rainfall odds ahead of the monsoon later this <br />summer. <br /> <br />· In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to <br />our south, both in Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico. These forecasts <br />match soil moisture-based statistical forecasts issued at the Climate Prediction Center. <br /> <br />· Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the <br />possibility of a switch to La Nina, just like it did last year around this time of year. <br />Whether or not this will lead to a sizable EI Nino event later this year remains uncertain. <br />Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If <br />the recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought conditions may worsen yet <br />again, even if we receive average rainfall. <br />