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<br />- 4 - <br /> <br />Lon2: term weather outlook (HDR En2:ineerin2:. Inc. - Bill Badini) <br /> <br />. John Henz was on a tropical vacation and meteorologist, Bill Badini, HDR Engineering gave the outlook <br />through the end of June 2005. <br />. Mr. Badini gave a refresher on the climate indices that affect Colorado that were highlighted in the April 6, <br />2005 minutes. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOl) and the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation <br />(ENSO) Index also called the (MEI) do affect weather and climate in Colorado and to a lesser extent the <br />Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). <br />. ENSO (El Nino - Southern Oscillation) - Dominated by East-West changes in air temperature and <br />pressure in tropical Pacific (MEI, SOl) <br />. PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) - Primary North-South difference in sea temperature in Pacific <br />Ocean <br />. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) -linked to changes in sea surface conditions in the Atlantic Ocean <br />. AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) <br />. MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) - 2-3 month build-up of warm water in Indian Ocean during <br />Winter/Spring. Send pulse of energy into sub-tropical jet stream. <br /> <br />0 <br />90 N <br />0 <br />60 N <br />0 <br />30 N <br />00 <br />0 <br />30 S <br />Q <br />60 S <br />0 <br />90 S <br />00 <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />~~ <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />~~- <br /> <br />'........ . - -~ <br />~.. <7-: - ... <br />~ <br />..~ '" <br /> <br />o <br />60 E <br /> <br />o <br />120 E <br /> <br />o <br />180 <br /> <br />o <br />120 W <br /> <br />o <br />60 W <br /> <br />00 <br /> <br />SST ANOM 10/12/03-10/18/03 <br /> <br />Base Per i ad: 1982-96 <br /> <br />~ II I II I I_ <br />-u ->J'; -'l.o ~.~ -Il;l -I.~ -1.0 -o~ .~ 1.0 I.~ I!.tl Il1I 3.0 ~.~ U <br /> <br />. Mr Badini showed a graph oftracking the El Nino year putting this year in the weak El Nino range that is <br />looking for an average monsoon season in Colorado. <br />. The SWE seems to been in the 9-10,000 foot range right now. <br />. The HDR forecast is tailored for the FTF meetings and calls for a cool spring that will moderate the <br />snowpack runoff. <br />. HDR is not forecasting any major 7-15 day hot spells; this will slow quick snowpack melt out and runoff <br />from high temperatures in the spring. <br /> <br />Flood Protection . Water Project Planning and Finance. Stream and Lake Protection <br />Water Supply Protection. Conservation Planning <br />