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<br />... In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our south, both in
<br />Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico. These forecasts match soil moisture-based statistical forecasts
<br />issued at the Climate Prediction Center.
<br />.... Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La
<br />Nifia, just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable El Nino event later this
<br />year remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the
<br />recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought conditions may worsen yet again, even if we receive average
<br />rainfall.
<br />
<br />Colorado Climate Center (CCC) - Nolan Doesken
<br />The CCC drought data and presentation can be found on the web at http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Mr. Doesken Made
<br />the point that potential flooding should deserve some attention. His historical perspective was: 140 years ago we were
<br />cleaning up flood damages, 128 years ago there was major flood damages in Denver, 110 year ago in Boulder there
<br />were big flood, 100 years ago in
<br />Fort Collins there were floods, 83
<br />years ago we were doing clean up
<br />in Pueblo from floods, 69 years
<br />ago there was flooding on the
<br />Republican River, 49 years ago
<br />there was flood damages from
<br />Huerfano to Pueblo counties to
<br />Las Animas counties. Larry Lang
<br />pointed out that in today's dollars
<br />there would $2 billion in flood
<br />damages if we had another 1965
<br />flood. Nolan continued with 23
<br />years ago there was an incredible
<br />flood on Frijole Creek with 16"
<br />of rain in four hours. Nolan
<br />finished with the fact that only
<br />five years ago we were cleaning
<br />up flood damages on Fountain
<br />Creek in El Paso and Pueblo
<br />Counties.
<br />
<br />COLORADO
<br />73
<br />--------1- 94 - - c::-89- _.57 - - .681- - -ii3i70""-1
<br />
<br />'"\ 64" 82 :1 I · I
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<br />;, 80~85e63r. .. · I
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<br />
<br />I _ _ _ _ I · ( } .87L _I. i .47 __ J
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<br />. I ~____J",. .. I
<br />-\ "-- _ ~ 10~113 _ _ ___....j
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<br />I ) 87 . \ I - 89 . I · .1
<br />~____ .84 '--9793; .--~133' 92 /\, 132. I
<br />\df;19~5, --'; ~74.h 119 ----'1I~70 '.----1------ L 83 I I
<br />_ _ _ _ ).... 9091 \ 84 1 '-;'6!j - .! 111 -- .!l _ _ _ I
<br />, I . I 11Sj/4,... -~. - -I ~
<br />76'78 9490 I 9485 . 102 -- !, 85 I I
<br />I .j. I--~II ~ ~4109/105 · I
<br />(" -- I --
<br />I ;I 1 l 124' __-1~ 109 I I
<br />I! I., I 86 I
<br />---_----'_____1 \L- (I .___.5~_
<br />
<br />Precipitation
<br />(percent)
<br />
<br />. 0-9
<br />.'0-29
<br />.30-49
<br />.50-69
<br />.70-89
<br />90-109
<br />.110-129
<br />.,30-,49
<br />.'SO-169
<br />.170-189
<br />190 - 209
<br />.210-229
<br />. 23D -249
<br />.>250
<br />
<br />
<br />Water Year 2004 (October 2003 through May 2004) precipitation as a percent of the 1971-2000 average_
<br />
<br />Generally speaking, storms that
<br />occur later in July and August tend to stop moving and stall a bit and hang around. This time of year they keep
<br />moving. From the drought perspective: the stream flows are lower and the snow is pretty much gone, but the system is
<br />not recharged. We are better than 2002 and two years later it's still not every good. In April we take a look back and
<br />say "thank you the moisture was wonderful".
<br />
<br />Impact Task Force Reports
<br />Municipal Water Task Force Barry Cress - conditions are the same as last time restrictions went into place. We are
<br />working with six projects around the state that are mostly plumbing and water quality. Things like circulation lines
<br />and install water meters. The Pinewood District will get a loan from the CWCB to obtain better water rights.
<br />Bob Stegner, Denver Water - reservoirs are about 81 % of full for Denver water and customers are using 27% less
<br />water in May than in previous years.
<br />
<br />Next Meeting
<br />The next meeting was tentatively set for July 20th and that coincides with the next CWCB Board Meeting in Delta,
<br />Colorado. The Water Availability Task Force Chair, Brad Lundahl, will pick a new date and location. All of the
<br />interested parties will be notified via email. The Flood Task Force will only meet again in the event of significant
<br />flooding in Colorado this summer. In the event of flooding the CWCB will coordinate state, federal flood programs to
<br />assist in documentation, recovery, and floodplain mapping operations.
<br />
<br />6
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