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r ~ I'lCU/CWB Forecast from NCEP's coupled atmosphere-ocean model thru Feb 2005: slow to develop warm SSTs. !:~_-.:-s. I~".~- J; "'t:iii _ ,.. _ ,... _ _ .. i:b ~~ -~ I ~ . " E ~<IQ:..,~~_--l I *2'- I .~ ~:~ ~ ~ !-~~ ....,..011 _ :M ,... ,.. !MO' ,.. ... ~rJor-.h-",,,. The smmner monsoon forecast reverts to "equal chances"over CO, yet again. Source (for ere forecasts): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ Klaus' Experimental Forecast UIi"fRIMENT,Ill CD<: JUl-SEP 200<41 PREC1PlT,IlT1Oft rOAfCAST (lnu4'dJunell,20041 7 ") . .. .. For July-September 2004, the monsoon forecasrfavors wet conditions over eastern New Mexico and Arizona, vvith a drier forecast for southwest New Mexico, Utah and parts of southern Colorado. Source: http://www. cdc.noaa.gov/peoplelklaus. wolter/SW casts/ CPC's last forecast indicates increased chances for a warmer- than-normal summer across much of the western u.s. Soil Moisture Analog Forecasts _ _ _ _ . ._ _J Last month's outlook and the most recent outlook both indicate cool, wet conditions for eastern Colorado. The latest outlook for western Colorado is drier than last month's outlook. Source: htt :/Iwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.f'.ovlsoilmstlcas.html Klaus' Summary (11 June 2004) The most recent EI Nino event - declared over a year ago - tried to make a comeback last fall, but has been 'clinically dead' for most of 2004. Near-neutral ENSO conditions remain the safest bet for the next few months, 'Nith some hope remaining for a resurgent EI Niiio later this year. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, and dry May), June has left much of Colorado drier than normal for the month so far. A few notable exceptions received excessive precipitation amounts in the form of damaging hail storms. We are now drifting into the so-called "mini-dry season" from mid-June until early July that is often associated 'Nith the hottest temperatures of the year, and reduced rainfall odds ahead of the monsoon later this sunnner. In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our south, both in Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico. These forecasts match soil moisture-based statistical forecasts issued at the Climate Prediction Center. Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a s'iVitch to La Niiia, just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this 'iVilllead to a sizable EI Nino event later this year remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the recent trend towards hotter sunnners holds up, drought conditions may worsen yet again, even if we receive average rainfall. 2