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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:42:17 PM
Creation date
4/30/2008 2:46:38 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Lake Oroville Runoff Enhancement Project - Final Report
Date
9/1/1995
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />1993-94, or excessively wet as in 1992-93. This extreme weather has significantly reduced <br />the number of randomized cases obtained after three years (87 actual versus 180 expected). <br />It is anticipated that the project would need to be continued at least two years beyond the <br />five years intended to achieve statistical significance. All of the remaining winter seasons <br />would need to have near normal precipitation. Adding two or more years would require <br />extension of the environmental permits, which may require public revie\"". Thirdly, physical <br />studies relating specifically to the transport of the tracer SF" (sulfur hexaflouride) within the <br />target area have shown that moderate to strong downdrafts and updrafts to the lee of the <br />main Sierra crest (mountain lee waves, which often occur prior to storm frontal passage but <br />are much less dominant in post-frontal patterns) have a significant impact on the successful <br />targeting of seeding-produced ice crystals. These results indicate that one solution to this <br />problem would be to move the dispensers farther west and south of their current locations <br />to extend crystal growth time before the crystals pass into this strong vertical motion field. <br />This relocation would require an amendment to the EIR/EIS and a period of public review, <br />and a possible year delay in the project. <br /> <br />The LOREP field activities during 1991-92 and 1992-93 are documented by Reynolds (1992b <br />and 1993) in annual project reports available from DWR. The annual report of 1992-93 field <br />activities (Reynolds, 1993) includes findings from SF" tracer studies, verification of the <br />G"CIDE (seeding guidance) numerical targeting model, and preliminary results from the <br />statistical analysis of the randomized seeding cases obtained during the first two winter field <br />seasons. <br /> <br />This final report summarizes the field activities conducted during all three winter field <br />seasons. However, more emphasis is given 10 activities from the 1993-94 field season, 'which <br />were not reported previously in D\VR annual reports. <br /> <br />The effects of mountain gravity waves or "lee waves" will be reviewed based on analysis of <br />the project rawinsonde balloon ascent rate. The combination of the horizontal winds and <br />vertical velocities computed from balloon tracking allows initialization of the Reclamation's <br />GUIDE model. The model computations allow an assessment ofthe impact these waves have <br />on the successful targeting of seeding effects within the precipitation gauge network. <br /> <br />As has been emphasized repeatedly (Reynolds, 1988; Super 1990), it is imperative that <br />transport and dispersion studies be conducted within any intended cloud seeding project area. <br />These studies are needed to determine whether ground-based seeding can place a sufficient <br />number of ice embryos into supercooled liquid cloud regions long enough to produce <br />substantial crystal growth for fallout within the intended target area. <br /> <br />Results will be provided from the use of a remote radar wind profileI' installed within the <br />target area to determine how the wind field changes during seeding operations. Although <br />the profileI' was unable to provide continuous vertical velocity data, its ability to accurately <br />measure the horizontal winds hourly demonstrates its value as a tool in assessing the <br />variable nature of the winds during winter storms. <br /> <br />The frequency and magnitude of supercooled liquid water will be reviewed by analysis of the <br />project's mountain-top icing data. Supercooled liquid water is necessary if cloud seeding is <br />to succeed. The magnitude and temperature of the liquid water is critical to the rate of <br />growth of seeded ice particles. This growth rate then impacts how quickly the crystals will <br />fall out of the cloud as precipitation particles, or "snowflakes." <br /> <br />2 <br />
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