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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:42:09 PM
Creation date
4/30/2008 2:44:24 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Contract/Permit #
14-06-D-7052
Title
Ecological Impacts of Snowpack Augmentation in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado
Date
3/1/1976
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />dispute over fiscal matters between members of the <br />two main institutions, CSU and CU. The dispute was <br />resolved initially by making approximately equal <br />funding allocations to the sets of projects from the <br />two universities, a practice which continued through <br />the project's life. This, with the fact that later <br />annual budgets were less than those requested, in- <br />duced ingrown evaluations of ongoing projects and <br />made the introduction of new lines of research <br />difficult, except as part of an extant project. <br />There is no reason to suppose that nonviable pro- <br />jects were supported after their nature became <br />obvious, but it is also true that no entirely new <br />projects were introduced during Phase II and few <br />projects received an increased level of funding <br />following a demonstration of significant results. <br />If snowpack augmentation, accompanied by an <br />ecological study, were to be attempted on a longer <br />time scale (decades, perhaps), a more formal, <br />rigorous review of research progress is indicated. <br />This review might include both public and external <br />scientific scrutiny. <br /> <br />Many of the same personnel have been involved in both <br />Phase I and Phase II of SJEP. There is no way of <br />estimating the impact of self-interest in the <br />problem-definition parts of Phase I except to note <br />that much of the work undertaken by .individual <br />investigators at this stage was in expectation of <br />funding in Phase II. A clearer separation of the <br />scientists involved in the two phases may have <br />allowed a better evaluation procedure, especially <br />if the scientists responsible for problem-definition <br />in Phase I had been retained as independent referees. <br />Such a separation seems to have been built into the <br />Central Sierra Project (referred to by Cooper et al. <br />1974). However, it would have some costs, both <br />financially and in terms of scientific efficiency, <br />and might require a larger pool of scientific man- <br />power than is available in some parts of the western <br />USA. <br /> <br />Finally, there are several research areas and <br />procedures which we now believe might have been <br />profitably included in SJEP but which were either <br />not proposed or not funded initially. Cooper et al. <br />(1974) consider a broad range of topics which <br />deserve consideration in an ecological evaluation <br />of snowfall augmentation and there is no reason to <br />repeat their evaluation. Here, we list with few <br />comments five areas for which a general need has <br />been felt in SJEP. <br /> <br />1. Studies on subalpine rangelands and meadows were <br />needed, particularly as the productivity and <br />phenology of these areas relates to the con- <br />sumers studied as part of SJEP. Some work on <br />this topic has been subsidized by other projects <br />working in the San Juan Mountains but a more <br />adequate study of subalpine grassland communi- <br />ties in relation to the migration and winter <br />range of elk would have been very useful. <br />Cooper et al. (1974) recommend similar work with <br />respect to deer migration and winter range in <br />the Sierra Nevada. <br /> <br />2. Also recommended by Cooper et al. (1974) is the <br />study of the spatial patterns of snowpack aug- <br />mentation on both a mesoscale and microscale. <br />Such a study would have proven very useful in <br />the San Juan Mountains. It would have allowed <br />a better estimation of silver imposition rates, <br />amounts of additional meltwater, and changes in <br />snow cover duration. These estimates, in turn, <br />would permit more precise evaluation of local <br /> <br />rates of silver accumulation and of site impacts <br />from empirically defined relationships between <br />the snow cover and ecologic factors. <br /> <br />3. A greater consistency in research procedures and <br />methods would also have improved the SJEP, <br />particularly in areas of overlap between the two <br />ecosystems studied. Some projects, e.g. studies <br />of' tree growth, are obviously limited to the <br />forest ecosystem; other studies were made in both <br />ecosystems, though with little cooperative effort <br />(e.g. small mammal studies); yet other projects <br />(e.g. the soil erosion studies) were restricted <br />to a single system when they could have been <br />conducted profitably in both. <br /> <br />4. Field site selection should have been based on <br />surveys like those eventually conducted by the <br />Overview Projects and should have been made with <br />a view to facilitating scientific cooperation <br />and minimizing logistic problems. In SJEP, this <br />need was recognized but the impossibility of con- <br />ducting detailed surveys under Phase I prevented <br />its being met. Where alpine tundra studies <br />are envisaged, they tend to be limited to a <br />choice between a few suitable sites and may <br />thereby control site selection for an entire <br />project. It should also be remembered that the <br />number of "suitable study areas" in a mountain <br />range will be greatly reduced by each addition <br />to the list of criteria which they should meet. <br />A situation in which there are no "suitable" <br />areas is rapidly approached if the number of <br />critical properties is allowed to expand too far. <br />For this reason, the number of criteria used in <br />choosing study areas should be tightly con- <br />strained. Alternatively, field areas may be <br />chosen by a relativistic procedure which defines <br />the best of a large number of possibilities. A <br />variety of statistical procedures allow this <br />second approach (e.g. Andrews, this vol. p. 87; <br />Caine, Appendix A, this vol. p.196; Krebs, <br />this vol. p. 81). <br /> <br />5. The effects of some of the constraints on SJEP <br />defined earlier in this chapter are also felt <br />to have handicapped the project. In particular, <br />the limitation to terrestrial systems now seems <br />to have been a serious one. We speculate in <br />Chapter II about the possibility of silver <br />accumulation in sedimentation areas and, for this <br />reason, among others, feel that the inclusion <br />of selected aquatic studies (some of which were <br />proposed initially) could have been beneficial. <br />In addition, there was a comparative lack of <br />historical studies in SJEP. In predicting <br />impacts, it is important to know if a planned <br />program of weather modification is in-phase or <br />out-of-phase with other natural and man-made <br />environmental changes. These other changes may <br />act to amplify or attenuate the effects of snow- <br />pack augmentation. <br /> <br />The topics which were studied as part of the SJEP are <br />treated in Chapter IV of this volume. Their sig- <br />nificance in a study of the ecological impacts of <br />snowpack augmentation is considered there. <br /> <br />Scientific Cooperation <br /> <br />An interdisciplinary program, especially one in- <br />volving a number of different institutions and <br />scientists who have not worked together previously, <br />inevitably encounters the need to foster cooperation <br /> <br />26 <br />
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