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<br />I <br />afternoon thunderstorm acti~ity. Evapotranspiration <br />is quite large during July, IAugust, and September. <br />Average daily summer precipitation over the watershed <br />of the Animas River, as measured at Silverton, Electra <br />Lake, Tacoma, and Durango, needs to be,greater than <br />'6.4 mm to produce a response in stream flow. <br /> <br />The net yield in runoff from summer rainfall is quite <br />small compared with the net ,yield from winter precipi- <br />tation. Mean annual specific yield of water runoff <br />from the major portion of the study area is about 500 <br />mm, with spring (April-July): runoff 3.5 to 4.5 times <br />greater than runoff during the re~linder of the year. <br />There'is a sharp gradient between the geographic areas <br />which collect enough precipitation to produce an <br />annual runoff yield of 254 mm per unit area and the <br />areas from which less than ~5 mm of runoff occur. <br />Runoff characteristics of the area were investigated <br />by Morel-Seytoux (1968) and ,Grant (1969). The latter <br />report includes detailed information on snowpack run- <br />off, streamflow trends for the past 60 years, and in- <br />vestigation of flood potential from snowmelt. <br /> <br />Vegetation <br /> <br />The variety in climate, soils, and physiography has <br />produced a spectrum of vegetation types. In the upper <br />elevations of the alpine tundra, vegetation is often <br />intruded by bedrock outcrops. Below timberline, <br />spruce-fir stands and aspen 'stands are intermingled <br />with open meadows and Gambell oak communities. The <br />lower elevations are primar:i!ly timbered with exten- <br />sive stands of ponderosa pi~e and Gambel oak. U.S. <br />Forest Service Township Map~ (1961--1963) provide some <br />information on habitat, whi~e Krebs (this vol., p. 81) <br />has produced detailed maps ~or much of the area. <br /> <br />I <br />Three study areas were located within the spruce-fir <br />forests and two in the uppe~ elevations of the alpine <br />tundra (Fig. 1, p. 3). Th~ detailed studies of the <br />tundra ecosystem under vary:i!ng snow conditions were <br />concentrated in the Williams Lakes and Eldorado Lake <br />basins. Forest ecosystem research projects were pri- <br />marily conducted on Missionary Ridge, with additional <br />investigation on Wolf Creek :Pass and at Rico. For a <br />detailed description of each study area see the Intro- <br />ductions to the tundra and forest ecosystems. <br /> <br />, <br />BACKGROUND OF CLOUD SEEDING 'FOR THE SAN JUAN ECOLOGY <br />PROJECT1J (W. Howell, U. S.: Bureau of Reclamation) <br /> <br />When winter snowstorms sweep over the San Juan Moun- <br />tains, not all of the moisture that condenses in the <br />form of clouds above the mountains falls as snow. <br />Much of it remains in parti~les too small to fall. <br />Carried beyond the mountains by the wind to where the <br />airflow sinks once more toward the plains, these par- <br />ticles re-evaporate. The rate at which snow reaches <br />the ground, expressed as a proportion of the rate at <br />which moisture condenses in 'the cloud, is called the <br />efficiency of precipitation.' <br /> <br />It has been found that in sqme storms, especially <br />those having relatively dee~ cloud systems with cloud- <br />top temperatures below about -27 C, the precipitation <br />efficiency tends to be relatively high, and in such <br />situations there is little that the current knowledge <br />of weather modification could do to increase the snow-' <br />fall. In weak storms that sondense very little mois- <br />ture, there is likewise lit~le potential for stimula- <br /> <br />tion. However, it has been found that when the <br />clouds are deep enough and active enough to condense <br />relatively large amounts of moisture but the cloud <br />top temperature is warmer than about -26 C, seeding <br />of the clouds with artificial ice nuclei often raises <br />the precipitation efficiency from a rather low value <br />to one typical of the colder clouds. Under these <br />particular conditions, cloud seeding has the poten- <br />tial of substantially increasing the rate of precipi- <br />tation, probably by as much as a hundred percent. <br /> <br />The Colorado River Basin Pilot Project was designed <br />as a statistical test of the capability of the cloud <br />seeding technology of 1971 to bring about precipita- <br />tion increases. When the weather forecasters expected <br />stormcloud conditions considered favorable for seeding <br />within a twenty-four hour period beginning at 11 A.M. <br />(and if established safety criteria were met), an <br />"experimental day" was declared. A randomized deci- <br />sion then was made whether the experimental day would <br />be seeded or left' unseeded as a control. The experi- <br />ment was intended to run for four consecutive winters <br />and accumulate 160 experimental days about equally <br />divided between seeded and unseeded. It actually <br />ran for five winters and accumulated 71 seeded and 76 <br />unseeded days. <br /> <br />It was thought that the snowfall on seeded days might <br />,exceed that on unseeded experimental days by about 15 <br />percent and possibly up to 30 percent, and that ex- <br />perimental days might account for as much as half of <br />the season's snowfall. This would have corresponded <br />to a maximum precipitation increase of about 7.5 per- <br />cent for the season as a whole. Although evaluation <br />is not yet complete, preliminary results indicate <br />that no such sizable overall increase was realized. <br /> <br />There appear to have been many "unseeded" days imme- <br />diately following seeded days when silver iodide <br />smoke, trapped in the valleys upwind of the mountain <br />range, affected the clouds and effectively caused <br />these days to be seeded. On other days strong winds <br />carried the seeding effect over the mountain crest <br />and outside the study area. On still other days, <br />designated as "seeded," the silver iodide failed for <br />one reason or another to reach the clouds. On still <br />other occasions the forecast of favorable conditions <br />was unfulfilled or else fulfilled for only a portion <br />of the 24-hour period, so that any seeding effect was <br />greatly diluted. <br /> <br />Nevertheless there exists an identifiable subset of <br />experimental days, free from these disturbing influ- <br />ences, for which substantial snowfall increases <br />could be identified with a high degree of confidence. <br /> <br />The tentative conclusions from the project character- <br />ize it as a limited success. It revealed serious <br />weaknesses of the 1971 technology in the methods used <br />to identify "seedable" occasions and to place the <br />seeding material in the desired place at the desired <br />time. It failed also to give a reasonably accurate <br />measure of the potential of cloud seeding for in- <br />creasing the seasonal precipitation. On the other <br />hand, it furnished additional evidence that the under- <br />lying principles are sound and that present weakness <br />has to do mainly with the practical difficulties of <br />effective application. <br /> <br />During the five winter seasons of the Pilot Project, <br />320 kg of silver iodide, containing 147 kg of silver, <br /> <br />1/ The San Juan Ecology Proj;ect did not include studies of the techniques of cloud seeding, but to set the stage <br />for the remainder of this' volume, we asked the Bureau of Reclamation to provide an overview of the cloud <br />seeding activities, which: they considerately provided. <br /> <br />5 <br />