<br />I
<br />afternoon thunderstorm acti~ity. Evapotranspiration
<br />is quite large during July, IAugust, and September.
<br />Average daily summer precipitation over the watershed
<br />of the Animas River, as measured at Silverton, Electra
<br />Lake, Tacoma, and Durango, needs to be,greater than
<br />'6.4 mm to produce a response in stream flow.
<br />
<br />The net yield in runoff from summer rainfall is quite
<br />small compared with the net ,yield from winter precipi-
<br />tation. Mean annual specific yield of water runoff
<br />from the major portion of the study area is about 500
<br />mm, with spring (April-July): runoff 3.5 to 4.5 times
<br />greater than runoff during the re~linder of the year.
<br />There'is a sharp gradient between the geographic areas
<br />which collect enough precipitation to produce an
<br />annual runoff yield of 254 mm per unit area and the
<br />areas from which less than ~5 mm of runoff occur.
<br />Runoff characteristics of the area were investigated
<br />by Morel-Seytoux (1968) and ,Grant (1969). The latter
<br />report includes detailed information on snowpack run-
<br />off, streamflow trends for the past 60 years, and in-
<br />vestigation of flood potential from snowmelt.
<br />
<br />Vegetation
<br />
<br />The variety in climate, soils, and physiography has
<br />produced a spectrum of vegetation types. In the upper
<br />elevations of the alpine tundra, vegetation is often
<br />intruded by bedrock outcrops. Below timberline,
<br />spruce-fir stands and aspen 'stands are intermingled
<br />with open meadows and Gambell oak communities. The
<br />lower elevations are primar:i!ly timbered with exten-
<br />sive stands of ponderosa pi~e and Gambel oak. U.S.
<br />Forest Service Township Map~ (1961--1963) provide some
<br />information on habitat, whi~e Krebs (this vol., p. 81)
<br />has produced detailed maps ~or much of the area.
<br />
<br />I
<br />Three study areas were located within the spruce-fir
<br />forests and two in the uppe~ elevations of the alpine
<br />tundra (Fig. 1, p. 3). Th~ detailed studies of the
<br />tundra ecosystem under vary:i!ng snow conditions were
<br />concentrated in the Williams Lakes and Eldorado Lake
<br />basins. Forest ecosystem research projects were pri-
<br />marily conducted on Missionary Ridge, with additional
<br />investigation on Wolf Creek :Pass and at Rico. For a
<br />detailed description of each study area see the Intro-
<br />ductions to the tundra and forest ecosystems.
<br />
<br />,
<br />BACKGROUND OF CLOUD SEEDING 'FOR THE SAN JUAN ECOLOGY
<br />PROJECT1J (W. Howell, U. S.: Bureau of Reclamation)
<br />
<br />When winter snowstorms sweep over the San Juan Moun-
<br />tains, not all of the moisture that condenses in the
<br />form of clouds above the mountains falls as snow.
<br />Much of it remains in parti~les too small to fall.
<br />Carried beyond the mountains by the wind to where the
<br />airflow sinks once more toward the plains, these par-
<br />ticles re-evaporate. The rate at which snow reaches
<br />the ground, expressed as a proportion of the rate at
<br />which moisture condenses in 'the cloud, is called the
<br />efficiency of precipitation.'
<br />
<br />It has been found that in sqme storms, especially
<br />those having relatively dee~ cloud systems with cloud-
<br />top temperatures below about -27 C, the precipitation
<br />efficiency tends to be relatively high, and in such
<br />situations there is little that the current knowledge
<br />of weather modification could do to increase the snow-'
<br />fall. In weak storms that sondense very little mois-
<br />ture, there is likewise lit~le potential for stimula-
<br />
<br />tion. However, it has been found that when the
<br />clouds are deep enough and active enough to condense
<br />relatively large amounts of moisture but the cloud
<br />top temperature is warmer than about -26 C, seeding
<br />of the clouds with artificial ice nuclei often raises
<br />the precipitation efficiency from a rather low value
<br />to one typical of the colder clouds. Under these
<br />particular conditions, cloud seeding has the poten-
<br />tial of substantially increasing the rate of precipi-
<br />tation, probably by as much as a hundred percent.
<br />
<br />The Colorado River Basin Pilot Project was designed
<br />as a statistical test of the capability of the cloud
<br />seeding technology of 1971 to bring about precipita-
<br />tion increases. When the weather forecasters expected
<br />stormcloud conditions considered favorable for seeding
<br />within a twenty-four hour period beginning at 11 A.M.
<br />(and if established safety criteria were met), an
<br />"experimental day" was declared. A randomized deci-
<br />sion then was made whether the experimental day would
<br />be seeded or left' unseeded as a control. The experi-
<br />ment was intended to run for four consecutive winters
<br />and accumulate 160 experimental days about equally
<br />divided between seeded and unseeded. It actually
<br />ran for five winters and accumulated 71 seeded and 76
<br />unseeded days.
<br />
<br />It was thought that the snowfall on seeded days might
<br />,exceed that on unseeded experimental days by about 15
<br />percent and possibly up to 30 percent, and that ex-
<br />perimental days might account for as much as half of
<br />the season's snowfall. This would have corresponded
<br />to a maximum precipitation increase of about 7.5 per-
<br />cent for the season as a whole. Although evaluation
<br />is not yet complete, preliminary results indicate
<br />that no such sizable overall increase was realized.
<br />
<br />There appear to have been many "unseeded" days imme-
<br />diately following seeded days when silver iodide
<br />smoke, trapped in the valleys upwind of the mountain
<br />range, affected the clouds and effectively caused
<br />these days to be seeded. On other days strong winds
<br />carried the seeding effect over the mountain crest
<br />and outside the study area. On still other days,
<br />designated as "seeded," the silver iodide failed for
<br />one reason or another to reach the clouds. On still
<br />other occasions the forecast of favorable conditions
<br />was unfulfilled or else fulfilled for only a portion
<br />of the 24-hour period, so that any seeding effect was
<br />greatly diluted.
<br />
<br />Nevertheless there exists an identifiable subset of
<br />experimental days, free from these disturbing influ-
<br />ences, for which substantial snowfall increases
<br />could be identified with a high degree of confidence.
<br />
<br />The tentative conclusions from the project character-
<br />ize it as a limited success. It revealed serious
<br />weaknesses of the 1971 technology in the methods used
<br />to identify "seedable" occasions and to place the
<br />seeding material in the desired place at the desired
<br />time. It failed also to give a reasonably accurate
<br />measure of the potential of cloud seeding for in-
<br />creasing the seasonal precipitation. On the other
<br />hand, it furnished additional evidence that the under-
<br />lying principles are sound and that present weakness
<br />has to do mainly with the practical difficulties of
<br />effective application.
<br />
<br />During the five winter seasons of the Pilot Project,
<br />320 kg of silver iodide, containing 147 kg of silver,
<br />
<br />1/ The San Juan Ecology Proj;ect did not include studies of the techniques of cloud seeding, but to set the stage
<br />for the remainder of this' volume, we asked the Bureau of Reclamation to provide an overview of the cloud
<br />seeding activities, which: they considerately provided.
<br />
<br />5
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