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<br />2. To quantitatively determine the skill in predicting the <br />important synoptic/mesoscale features when suitable cloud <br />conditions were present, and <br />3. To determine which forecast inputs the forecasters believed <br />were most inportant in making the forecasts. <br /> <br />The design, implementation, and preliminary results of this <br />one yea= exploratory experiment were reported by Flueck and <br />Reynolds (1986). <br /> <br />Based on the 1985-86 results, modifications appeared <br />necessary both' to sharpen the forecast experiment and to better <br />~~antify the results. Hence, the forecast design was changed and <br />the modified experiment was continued during the 1986-87 SCPP <br />fie2.d season. <br /> <br />The specific objectives for the 1986-87 exploratory forecast <br /> <br />experiment were: <br /> <br />1. To ~~antify the skill of predicting the passage of various <br />types of fronts into the ARB, <br />2. To quantify the skill of predicting the onset, duration, and <br />concent~ation of SLW and precipitation from clouds over the <br />Sier~a Nevadacspecifically at Kingvale (KGV) (see Fig. 1), <br />and <br />3. To deter~ine which forecast inputs the forecasters believed <br />were ~ost important in making these forecasts. <br /> <br />The changes to the design resulted in direct focus on the <br />prese~ce of fro~ts, the elimination of a specific prediction for <br />the fixed target experimental conditions, and the addition of a <br /> <br />forecast of precipitation (temperature forecasts at KGV also were <br /> <br />re~~ested but onlv as an after-thouaht) . <br />_ _ oJ <br /> <br />5 <br />