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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:41:08 PM
Creation date
4/24/2008 2:58:30 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
An Exploratory Forecast Experiment to Predict Supercooled Liquid Water in the Sierra Nevada
Date
11/1/1988
Weather Modification - Doc Type
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<br />This probably is due to a forecaster's desire to gain finer <br />resolution of the storms both in time and space. During non <br />storm days the major emphasis again is on the large scale <br />or synoptic inputs (now, the first three items account for <br />85%). In short, the forecasters probably are looking at the <br />large scale to see when the next storm might arrive. <br /> <br />Finally, it is notable to see that a relatively new <br />observing system, the radiometer, already is a valued (12%) <br />tool in forecasting liquid water conditions in the Sierras. <br /> <br />5.0 CONCLUDING CO~~mNTS <br /> <br />We have taken the view that whether it is operations or <br />research, if one forecasts in earnest then one should formally <br />evaluate or verify the forecasts. It is only through such <br />feedback that forecasters and science can better understand the <br />atmosphere and its many faces. <br /> <br />The results have indicated that one can predict the <br />occu~rence of various types of cold fronts, and their associated <br />li~uid water, on the west coast of the united states with <br />s~bstantial skill. Furthermore, such predictions could have a <br />significant impact on the economics of the area as it relates to <br />construction, agriculture, transportation, local flood <br />management, etc. <br /> <br />This exploratory forecast experiment has begun to identify <br />the needed forecast inputs and relations by which these events <br />can be predicted. A new observing tool, the radiometer, already <br />has shown its importance as an input to the local precipitation <br />forecasting problem. It now appears that one may be able to <br />relate the type of cold front to the timing and intensity of <br />liqu~d water and the potentially associated precipitation. <br /> <br />13 <br />
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