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<br />Texas Crop Modeling and Drought Assessment <br /> <br />Drs. Gerald Arkin and William Dugas outlined the work at the Texas Agricultural <br />Experiment Station in Temple. The objectives of the effort are to develop a <br />method for Quantitatively characterizing agricultural drought using crop <br />models, develop an early drought assessment capability that uses these <br />models, and validate the early drought assessments with archived field <br />data. Models are available for several crops. The daily growth and develop- <br />ment model for grain sorghum is Quite advanced, and this study is improving <br />it further, <br /> <br />The methods to be used in the drought assessment work include yearly simula- <br />tions of sorghum crop growth and development, soil-water patterns, and crop <br />yield. The calculated yields using all weather data will be assumed to be <br />"correct" yields for subseQuen~ comparisons. The model will then be exercised <br />uSing various portions of the. observed weather data and various weather <br />scenarios for "run-out" weather, and these yields will be compared to the <br />"correct" yields. An assessment of the abi1 ity of the model to converge on a <br />final yield when various combinations of weather and scenario data are used <br />will be made. The study will relate within-year plant and soil-water condi- <br />tions to yields and will compare model simulations with field data. The <br />results will suggest how far in advance a drought can be detected and how <br />well the effects of the drought can be predicted. <br /> <br />Utah <br /> <br />Mr. Paul Summers of the Utah Division of Water Resources introduced the <br />participants in the Utah program. Mr. Clark Ogden of the Division of Water <br />Resources outlined the Utah objectives, which include performing background <br />studies of the precipitation climatology and drought periods in Utah, <br />preparing an assessment of the potential for and benefits from weather <br />modification during drought periods as a means to augment water supplies, and <br />developing a design for a standby cloud seeding program for drought mitigation. <br /> <br />13 <br />