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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:41:05 PM
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4/24/2008 2:57:32 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Suitability of the Upper Colorado River Basin for Precipitation Management
Date
10/1/1969
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />./ <br /> <br />Chapter VI <br /> <br />CONCLUSION <br /> <br />Suitability of basins for weather modification over <br />the whole Upper Colorado River Basin was discussed from <br />a hydrologic standpoint. <br /> <br />The relationship between precipitation and spring <br />runoff with greater than 0.90 correlation coefficient <br />was obtained for 365 sets by applying a multiple linear <br />regression analysis, the independent variables being <br />winter and spring precipitation. Using this relation- <br />ship, the increase of spring runoff due to a 10 percent <br />increase of winter precipitation was calculated and used <br />as a criterion to discuss optimal water yield. The <br />following watersheds are those where a relatively large <br />amount of increase of runoff can be expected in order: <br /> <br />(a) San Juan Mountains, <br /> <br />(b) Upper reach of the Yampa River and its <br />tributaries, <br /> <br />(c) Headwater of the Green River, <br /> <br />(d) Upper basin of the Colorado River, <br /> <br />(e) Upper basins of Uinta River, Lake Fork, and <br />Rock Creek, and <br /> <br />(f) Headwaters of the Rafael River. <br /> <br />By applying the two-sample u-test, the number of <br />years for evaluation of weather modification attain- <br />ment for each basin was discussed. Though results <br />show some variability between watersheds separated by <br />a very short distance, the following basins lead to a <br />smaller number of years needed for evaluation on the <br />average: <br /> <br />(a) Upper reach of the Yampa River and its <br />tributaries, <br /> <br />(b) Headwater of the Green River, <br /> <br />(c) Upper basin of the Colorado River, <br /> <br />(d) Upper basins of Uinta River, Lake Fork, and <br />Rock Creek, and <br /> <br />(e) San Juan Mountains. <br /> <br />These results show that the upper reach of the Yampa <br />River and its tributaries; the headwaters of the Green <br />River; and the upper basins of Uinta River, Lake Fork, <br />and Rock Creek are suitable, in addition to the two <br />pilot-areas--the San Juan Mountains and the Upper <br />Basin of the Colorado River.* <br /> <br />Furthermore, the number of years for evaluation <br />was calculated for certain combinations of basins in <br />the pilot area by using a new variable that is a linear <br />combination of a given number of runoff variables from <br />individual sub-basins. This was done in order to select <br />the most desirable combination of basins for the planned <br />experiment. It was found that particular gages playa <br />particularly important role in keeping the number of <br />years needed for evaluation to a minimum. They are in <br />the <br /> <br />(a) San Juan Mountains <br /> <br />1077015 <br />1077250 <br />1371555 <br /> <br />Navajo River at Edith <br />Rio Blanco near Pagosa Springs <br />Uncompahgre River near Ridgway <br /> <br />(b) the Upper Basin of the Colorado River <br /> <br />1762500 <br /> <br />East Fork Troublesome Creek near <br />Troublesome <br />Willow Creek below Willow Creek <br />Reservoir <br />North Inlet at Grand Lake <br /> <br />1810000 <br /> <br />1930000 <br /> <br />However, the study shows that there exist a great <br />deal of latitude in the actual choice of the stations <br />with little loss of efficiency in evaluation. This fact <br />is probably the most important result of this study. <br /> <br />It also was found the minimum number of years in <br />the San Juan Mountains was six, and in the Upper Basin <br />of the Colorado River Basin was three. It must be <br />remembered that these results hold under the assumption <br />of a uniform 10% increase in winter precipitation in <br />both pilot areas. If the increase is greater the num- <br />ber of years decreases approximately at a quadratic <br />rate. <br /> <br />At this point, no physical meaning is assigned to <br />the C\ I S in equation (3). It may be desirable to consider <br /> <br />the meaning of the ai'S in a further study. <br /> <br />*Since the initiation of this study the plans of the Bureau were modified. Currently (45) only one area <br />is considered: the 'San Juan Mountains region. <br /> <br />40 <br />
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