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<br />enough to enable the plant to survive a long dry period later jn the year. <br />While the study does not alter observed temperatures, it does show the effect <br />of temperature stress in reducing grain yield. Temperature stress can <br />sometimes offset the positive effects of adequate or even abundant precipi- <br />tation. These findings apply both to observed conditions and to the precipi- <br />tation enhancement scenarios. <br /> <br />Study results have implications for weather modification plannjng and opera- <br />tions. Those scenarios which treat a broad spectrum of precipitation events <br />are more effective in increasing yield than those which treat only particular <br />ranges of precipitation amount. The broad-spectrum scenarios provide more <br />additional precipitation and also have a higher probability of' an event <br />occurring at the "right" time. The model analyses show that additional <br />precipitation is usually useful whenever it occurs, even in many years with <br />above-normal precipitati'on. The need for additional precipitation, however, <br />is not necessarily accompanied by meteorological opportunity. Furthermore, <br />the ability to forecast low precipitation years (or seasons) is less than <br />perfect. These factors suggest that the most practical weather modification <br />program is one that is designed to operate every year and is prepared to <br />treat each suitable event whenever it occurs. <br /> <br />THE GRAIN SORGHUM MODEL <br /> <br />The grain sorghum model used was developed by Arkin, Vanderlip, and Ritchie <br />(1976). It is a physiological model which simulates the growth and develop- <br />ment of a single grain sorghum plant representative of a sorghum crop from <br />planting to physiological maturity. ' <br /> <br />The model requires both meteorological and agricultural data. The meteoro- <br />logical data are daily values of precipitation, solar radiation, and maximum <br />and minimum temperature. The agricultural data relate to the plant and the <br />soil in which it grows. These data describe the particular variety being <br />modeled by stating the maximum number of leaves on the plant and the maximum <br />area of each leaf. For this study, the variety-related data as well as plant <br />population were not changed from those originally used by the developers. <br />Other agricultural data required for a given site are the row Spacing, the <br />planting depth, the soil water initially available, the maximum available <br />soil water, parameters that describe the evaporative properties of the soil, <br />and the latitude of the site. The agricultural variables are fixed for a <br />given site so that only the effects of the meteorological variables are <br />investigated. . <br /> <br />In operation, the model uses the combined effects of heat, radiation, and <br />soil water to grow the plant. The importance of precipitation is reflected <br />through its impact on the soil water level. After planting, an adequate <br />amount of soil water and heat must be present to permit germination and <br />subsequent emergence of the plant. After emergence, photosynthesis begins. <br />As the plant grows and develops, the rate of total photosynthate production <br />increases. Production of photosynthate is reduced if the plant experiences <br />water stress or temperature stress. Water stress is calculated through an <br />algorithm which determines the soil water available as a function of precipi- <br />tation received and evaporation from the plant and soil surface. The stress <br /> <br />2 <br />