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<br />154 <br /> <br />JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY <br /> <br />VOLUME 27 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />height. As these features can be observed prior to cross- <br />ing the central Sierra, motion can be established and <br />an estimate of passage across the project area given, <br />assuming steady state conditions. <br />Since the relationships presented here were initially <br />indicated from case study analyses in 1984, a forecast <br />experirnent based on these principles was prepared. The <br />experiment was conducted in the Auburn forecast office <br />during the 1985-86 and 1986-87 sepp field opera- <br />tions; it tested the forecaster's ability to predict the on- <br />set, amount, and duration of SL W observed by the <br />radiorneter at Kingvale. Flueck and Reynolds (1986) <br /> <br /> <br />FIG. 13. Sequence of GOES-W enhanced infrared satellite images <br />for 27 March 1985. Gray scale enhancement is the same as described <br />for Fig. 3. Cold front position estimated from surface observations. <br />(a) 0100, (b) 0200, (c) 0400. <br /> <br />'I <br />.J <br /> <br />have reported on prelirninary results from the first year <br />of this experirnent. Forecast skill was demonstrated. A <br />future article will describe this experiment in more de- <br />tail and summarize both years of the experiment. <br />The question arises as to the representativeness of <br />the cases described here. A study now being completed <br />by Heggli and Rauber (1987) has reviewed all precip- <br />itation events in the central Sierra Nevada beginning <br />with January 1984 and ending with January 1987 for <br />times in which the radiorneter was operating at King- <br />vale (usually December through March for each win- <br />ter). Their study attempts to classify events by storm <br /> <br />I <br />l <br />